Analysis of the Belmont at the Big A’s card, September 16th, 2023
Jockey Club Oaks Invitational Stakes
Hello, my dear horse racing fans around the globe!
This is the opening week for the Belmont at the Big A fall meet. As you know the Big Sandy is currently under construction. A huge budget has been approved to renovate Belmont Park and when it’s done, this racetrack will become a cutting-edge facility for horse racing. With modern installations that provide a top-quality environment for horses, industry workers, and fans. The future of the industry is safe thanks to this type of improvements. After the unfortunate events that took place during the summer meet, this project is now utmost importance. Because of this, all the Belmont meets will be carried out at Aqueduct for several months.
The first weekend of the fall meet starts with the Jockey Club Oaks G3 on Saturday, where Highland Grace has a handful competing against Godolphin’s filly Eternal Hope.
So, as the spectacle begins and with no further delay, I am pleased to present to you the best winning formula for horse racing bettors in the U.S. I wish y’all the best of luck and a great Saturday afternoon at the best racetrack within the New York City limits.
Welcome to Belmont at the Big A!
Race 1: Mdn 90K, 6 1/2 – furlongs
This is an interesting race to start the day with. These colts have the potential to become very good racehorses. I am going to use three colts for this race.
3) Commander of Truth
This is a colt with an alluring pedigree. Pulpit’s and Tale of the Cat’s dams were full sisters, both by Mr. Prospector and Narrate. So, by crossing a Pulpit’s descendant with a mare from Tale of the Cat’s bloodline, we obtained an inbred 5x5 to both Mr. Prospector and Narrate, which means the breeders were interested in the Rasmussen factor. It is interesting because this bloodline already produced some top-class racehorses like the aforementioned sires. In addition, this is a colt presented by Chad Brown and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz.
Something to highlight is the fact that Irad is not only Brown’s most trusted rider, but also the preferred jockey by Klaravich Stables. Which means that he has a high level of commitment to this top owner. So, if he chose to ride this colt instead of Hedge the Risk (Klaravich’s colt), it should indicate that this is a superior colt. Considering the high amount his owners paid out (675K), he should be among the favorites for this race. Finally, Commander of Truth has been training nicely at Belmont since he arrived.
6) Hurricane Nelson
He had a very good performance as a first timer. In that race he faced some quality colts like Deterministic (Noteworthy Runner) and Eliminate who was the odds-on favorite at the time. The fractional and final times of that race were fast for two-year-old colts. He was involved in the race since the beginning and lost right in the money to Deterministic. Also, he is now training under the watchful eye of Christophe Clement who, in my opinion and with all due respect, is a better trainer than Delgado. Everything indicates this is the horse to beat.
7) Private Desire
There are three colts by Constitution in this field. This one debuted over a sloppy track, facing severe weather conditions back at the Spa and he performed nicely. This horse presented by Todd Pletcher has the advantage over Brown’s trainee (another colt sired by Constitution), because he already competed. Private Desire has been breezing nicely, having only maintenance workouts so he could get fully recovered from that big effort at Saratoga. Between Pletcher’s trainees, this is the one I like the most.
Picks: 6-3-7
Race 2: Alw 100K, 6 – furlongs
There are three horses here which seem to be in better shape than the rest of the field at this moment. Even when we are talking about a small field, it isn’t easy to select one these horses over the others, this is a very even group.
2) Sugar Gray Leonard
Since he was moved to Richard Dutrow’s barn, Sugar Gray Leonard has significantly improved as a racehorse. I know that Dutrow’s methods are currently being questioned by the industry due to his controversial history of racing infractions and his 10 – years license revocation. I am in favor of protecting the horses’ integrity, and by no means I should be considered as a Dutrow’s fan. However, as a handicapper, it is my job to select winners, and despite not liking the system used by some trainers, I must select their horses when they are going through a sweet moment. I don’t know what method Dutrow is using with this guy, but Sugar Gray Leonard is now a much better racehorse. With Irad aboard he should be included among every handicapper’s picks.
5) Kool Katmandu
He had a fantastic performance back in December when breaking his maiden. After that race, he was pointed to a black-type race against Drew’s Gold and a much better field. Kool Katmandu got injured in that race and was kept off the tracks for several months. However, he resumed training back in June and has come on quickly in the last month. His breezes are fantastic, he has several bullet time workouts, and everybody surrounding this colt says he is finally ready to return. Kool Katmandu will run with Lasix medication for the first time which also helps improvement.
6) Victorious Waves
I am aware that this is an important move up in class for Victorious Waves. However, this is not a good field, and, at the beginning of the year, he competed several times against similar classes and won. I like this colt a lot, he has proved his quality by winning six times out of twelves races. That’s a 50% effectiveness. The Ortiz’s brothers are always well advised regarding the horses they should ride. Having them aboard of Sugar Gray Leonard and Victorious Waves, is a good sign.
Picks: 2-6-5
Race 3: Mdn 90K, 1 1/16 – Mile (outer turf)
I like these fillies a lot, I believe they are good racehorses despite having suffered some physical problems at the early stages of their careers. Many of them are having a late debut because of those issues. In my opinion, they have the potential to become fine thoroughbreds.
1) War Princess
This is a filly with very good pedigree. She is an inbred 3x4 to Northern Dancer, and the most interesting part is that she is a descendant of two of the best representatives by the aforementioned. On one side she is a descendant of Danzig and War Front, and on her dam side she descent from Sadler’s Wells and Galileo. War Princess is a Whisper Hill’s homebred.
Unfortunately, she has gone through a lot of physical problems. War Princess debuted as a three-year-old, and she did it at the end of the racing season. After her debut, she improved with each race (competing against some powerful fillies), but back in March, she had another setback and couldn’t compete until now.
In every single race she participated the pace was fast, and she managed to get involve in the race since the beginning. She has tactical speed which is an important advantage against a field which lacks early speed. Running close to the rail she will save a lot of ground and could win this race wire-to-wire. War Princess must be ready to come back because she is training nicely and Pletcher looked for JL. Ortiz to be his rider.
4) African Waters
A very expensive filly who is having a late debut (1,200K). She was bred by Gainesway Thoroughbreds, and they are also involved in the partnership that owns her. African Waters is flying over the track in her training sessions, she is looking good in her breezes. She has the right pedigree for the distance, and probably the early speed to get involved in the race since the start. Shug McGaughey’s winning percentage for grass debuts is not high, but this filly has everything she needs to have a successful performance.
5) Vanished
There are several fillies here presented by Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, and Irad Ortiz is the most trusted rider for both trainers. If Irad is aboard this filly is because she is one of the best racehorses in the field. Riders’ decisions are always an important fact to consider when this situation is presented. Irad already rode Rhiannon and Akayla, and if he chose to be aboard of Vanished instead, she should be a good horse to bet on.
I believe Vanished wasn’t herself in her last performance at Saratoga. She just faded and the speed figure she obtained in that race was significantly lower than those from her previous ones. Vanished could be positioned behind the pace setters hunting for the race from a comfortable position. If the pace is fast, she will be the fastest filly at the latter section of the race.
Picks: 1-5-4
Race 4: Clm 20K, 6 ½ – furlongs, purse 48K
This is a bad group. When you have old horses competing in low purse claiming races, the winner will always be the one who is in better shape at the time of the race, and not the horse with the best PP’s. It is very difficult to do a proper analysis for these races. However, there are a couple of horses I have been following for some time, and I believe will have a nice performance in this race.
2) Air Show
Back in August, I selected him among my picks when he lost to Poppy’s Pride. These were my comments at the time:
If it wasn’t for his last couple of performances, he would have been among the favorites. I mean, what happened to this guy in the past couple of months after he came back to the tracks? I think Rudy thought he had a better horse after Air Show’s victory in April and the way he was training. That’s why he pointed him to a 95K allowance race at Belmont Park. Rudy also decided to switch surfaces because Air Show won running on the tapeta, which is a surface where turf horses tend to perform better than dirt horses. Then, he switched back to the dirt and the horse just didn’t show up. Now, if this horse performs as he did back at Aqueduct, he is a powerful contender. This could be a well-hidden winner.
Well, Air Show didn’t win but he improved a lot. Then, Air Show competed one more time in a 12.5K claiming race (lower class) and continued to improve. His speed figures are still on the rise. I think Rudy believes this horse is ready to have a successful performance since he looked for Castellano to be his rider. Be careful with this horse, he likes the Big A track so don’t leave him out of your tickets.
7) Flamingo Hawk
In my opinion, this horse is better running over 6 ½ - furlongs to 7 - furlongs. In fact, he has won two times out of three races competing over 6 ½ - furlongs. He always has a powerful late kick, and now, under Linda Rice’s training he should improve a lot. Lezcano has a high winning percentage when competing in claiming races, and it is explained because he is one of the most trusted riders by Linda Rice who specializes in claiming races. If under Linda’s training this horse bounces back and perform as he did back in 2022, he will beat this field.
Picks: 2-7
Race 5: Alw 100K, 1 3/8 – Mile (turf)
These horses will put on a good show. I don’t consider this race to be easy at all, it is a very even field and the marathon distance complicates things even more. I strongly recommend not to place high bets in this race.
1) Cyber Ninja
He already won running over the distance to break his maiden just before he was pointed to the Belmont Derby G1, where he faced top-class horses like Far Bridge, The Foxes, etc. After that race, which clearly wasn’t the best one for him, Cyber Ninja switched surfaces and competed in a dirt race. Another strange decision by his connections.
In my opinion, he is a turf horse who runs better when coming from off the pace. I believe this is the perfect race for him, and JL. Ortiz knows it. Against this accessible field he should perform much better. He is a three-year-old with plenty of room to grow.
6) Ramblin’ Wreck
A month ago, he had a great performance competing against Let’s Go Big Blue who, in my opinion, is a much better racehorse than the ones in this field. I believe he has faced more difficult challenges in the recent months that the one he is facing here. Maybe the soft pace could be a little bit of concern, but Ramblin’ Wreck should be able to overcome it. With Irad aboard, he is clearly the horse to beat.
7) Scramble
In his last race the turf track was good, and it was benefiting the frontrunners over the closers. I think he had a very good performance because he almost caught Taking Candy despite the track conditions. This horse is so good that he has never been outside the money after eight races, even when he has faced top fields with horses like General Jim, Activist Investing, and Kalik. Considering the lack of pace, I like that he can get involved in the race since the beginning. He has been training nicely and with Castellano aboard, he should be deciding the race.
Picks: 7-1-6
Race 6: Mdn 90K, 6 – furlongs (outer turf)
In my opinion, this is a nice group of turf fillies. They are at the beginning of their racing careers and many of them are still green. I am going to select three fillies for this contest.
2) Mitole Magic
I am not a big fan of Mitole as a sire, but this filly has an impressive demeanor, and she has been training extremely good, all her workouts are bullet time ones. Trained by Chad Brown and mounted by Irad Ortiz she must be included in my selections. I believe she has the necessary tactical speed to be successful in this maiden race against green fillies.
7) Ever So Sweet
This is a filly with an interesting pedigree, especially for the grass. She had a great debut where she showed tactical speed and almost won the race gate-to-wire. In that race she obtained the highest speed figure by any of the fillies in this field to have raced. Because she already competed, she has a significant advantage over the debutants, and considering all the fillies who already ran, Ever So Sweet is the one to beat. I don’t know if any of these fillies will have the speed to challenge her for the lead, so I don’t see this race being held at a suicidal pace. Because of that, she is a logical first pick, this could be an in-hand victory for Brad Cox and her connections.
10) Progeny
Yes, I am aware that she is cutting back in distance. However, I was searching for a filly that could win coming from off the pace, and she could be the one. I don’t think she is fast enough to challenge Ever So Sweet, Mayfly or probably Mitole Magic, but if by any reason the frontrunners get flatten, since she already competed in a route, Progeny could have the stamina to catch them right in the money.
Picks: 7-2-10
Race 7: Alw 50K, 1 – Mile, purse 65K
This is a very poor field. Anything can happen when you have bad horses running over routes. There is a horse here that is part of our Noteworthy Runners section, so we must take him into account. He is in good shape, and we have been following him for some time, so this could be the race where he finally come out on top.
1) Thunderian
Considering the class he’s competing against, he will offer a high payout. This is a very dangerous horse coming from off the pace. Thunderian has been deciding the race several times before an he is at the gate of a successful performance. The problem has been when they have tried to change his running style, or when they have switch surfaces. This is a dirt horse with a stayer running style. He becomes a real menace specially when the race is on to a fast pace. Last time the Saratoga racetrack was sloppy and that affected his late run. When you least expected, this horse will win, and the payout will be very good for bettors. However, there is no speed in this field, so he has a tough challenge ahead of him because of his running style.
3) Warrior Richard
These bad races sometimes are decided by good choices made by top riders. This horse has an interesting closing kick, and with Irad aboard, he has a real chance here. In my opinion, the extra furlong will allow him to have a more comfortable trip. He is coming out from a position that could complicate things, but the longer distance could allow Irad to stay back, move to the outside, and have a successful performance at the end.
7) Kunshan Bridge
I am selecting this horse over Ride Up because he’s still training under Linda Rice’s supervision and will be mounted by JL. Ortiz (her must trusted rider). Ride Up was claimed and moved to Thomas Morley’s barn where they decided to have him gelded. Horses don’t have good performances right after being geld.
On the contrary, Kunshan Bridge has been improving at Linda’s barn and Jose is back aboard. This horse has been breezing nicely, he has come on quickly in the last month. I like that he has the speed to get involved in the race since the start because there is no tactical speed among these horses. The pace will be slow, and this guy could save a lot of stamina to close the race.
Picks: 1-7-3
Race 8: Alw 95K, 1 ¼ – Mile (inner turf)
I like this field; I believe these are top racehorses who’s prime have already passed. This is a very fun race to watch.
1) Durante
This will be the fastest horse coming out from the gate. The fact that he has tactical speed is a big advantage for this horse, it seems like the only two horses who could challenge him from the start are Jake Rocks and Seven Nation Army. However, none of them seem like a real menace for Durante. He dominated the field in his last race, and probably he is the fittest horse currently. Durante has won three races in a row at different racetracks, his consistency makes him the horse to beat. He just needs to avoid a suicidal pace. In addition, he is coupled with Nolo Contesto, who also has a real chance against this field.
6) Vittorio
I have been talking about this horse for some time now, and I selected him as a single back in July:
We are talking about a horse who was purchased for 750K by a top owner in the sport like Kaleem Shah, Inc. who happens to be the owner of some top-class racehorses like the champion Bayern, or the Santa Anita Derby winner Dortmund. This racing team has a 23.47% career winning percentage. Vittorio hasn’t met the expectations but mostly due to physical problems. After he came back to the tracks in February (competing against Charge It), he has continued to improve and now seems to be in great shape. His last couple of workouts are bullet time ones. During his 2023 campaign he has faced some very good horses like Last Samurai, Creative Minister, Charge It, etc.
In his last race, Vittorio didn’t have the best trip and he was facing a huge cut back in distance. Despite the circumstances, he almost won the race. To make him sharper, Castellano suggested to use blinkers so the horse could be more focused. This equipment could be a game changer for him. Now, being in great shape, with Castellano back aboard, and against an accessible field, I believe he is the best horse for the course. Vittorio was also my first selection in his last appearance. I think this horse is ready to have an amazing performance. It is time! No more excuses.
Unfortunately, he finished third. I was a little upset with the decision to running him at the lead since he performs much better coming from off the pace. This time I believe he will be positioned at the middle of the pack hunting for the race. In my opinion, the pace will be a fast one, and that fact increases his chances significantly. He will be my first pick for this race one more time.
10) King Angelo
I was a little disappointed with his last performance. He was the favorite and never got involved in the race. However, he was switching surfaces and had a complicated trip, remember the turf wasn’t in good condition at the time. What made me select him against this field is the fact that Irad is back aboard. It seems like he knows this horse will have a successful performance any time soon. In my opinion, King Angelo depends too much on a fast pace, but there should be some pace here.
Picks: 6-1-10
Race 9: Jockey Club Oaks Invitational, 1 3/8 – Mile, purse 350K
We have two European fillies competing in this edition of the Jockey Club Oaks. Both seem like superior fillies to the American contenders. The question is: are the American fillies up to the task? I believe one is.
5) Highland Grace
This filly by American Pharoah is a very talented racehorse. She has proved to handle marathon distances well, and she has improved race after race. Some may say this is a huge move up in class for her, but I believe it is the right step to take in her racing career, and if it wasn’t for the presence of the Godolphin’s filly, this isn’t a group one field. Considering all the American fillies, she is the one that could be deciding the race against Eternal Hope competing over 10 – furlongs.
6) Eternal Hope
We are talking about a filly who entered the Betfred Oaks Stakes G1 at Epsom as Godolphin’s top filly for the race. She wore the Godolphin’s first team silks (blue cap), and she was ridden by William Buick. In that race she faced some of the best turf fillies of her generation in the entire world. After that race, she competed at Deauville (France) against a very good filly named Lumiere Rock, who is considered a strong group one contender.
Eternal Hope just arrived at the United States, but she is in good shape after the long trip. She must be one of those European horses who likes fast and firm turf tracks. Her pedigree suggests she is a filly perfectly prepared to handle distances over 10 to 12 furlongs. Considering her racing style, she will be close to the leaders since the early stages. This is the filly to beat. Here is the replay of her victory in the Fitzdares Oaks Trial Fillies Stakes, where she defeated another top filly like Be Happy:
7) Speirling Beag
Another Europen filly, not considered as good as Eternal Hope, but a filly who is well adapted to running in the U.S. She was good in the Belmont Oaks where she lost to Aspen Grove who later competed against the boys in the Saratoga Derby Invitational. This filly is a miler horse, I believe she is better competing over a mid-distance race. I don’t know if she can handle the long race, but she performed nicely at Woodbine, and could become a surprise against this field.
Picks: 6-5-7
Race 10: Mdn 90K, 6 – furlongs (outer turf)
What a difficult race to end the day with. The fillies to have raced didn’t show much talent, and the debutants are very even. Try to secure your picks by selecting several fillies in this race.
5) Rosie Jeeks
Despite not having an important pedigree, this filly trained by Chad Brown was purchased by a significant amount of 240K, so she must have a top physique for a racehorse. Rosie Jeeks has been setting bullet times in her visits to the tracks. In addition, Brown has good numbers when debuting on the turf, and she will be ridden by JL. Ortiz.
6) Into Stars
Considering she is a daughter of Into Mischief, who is the top sire in America currently, and because she has top connections, this is a filly to take into account. Into Stars debuted back at Saratoga and she didn’t show much. However, that race was taken off the turf, so we shouldn’t judge her after only a dirt race. Cox has very good numbers when presenting a horse for his second race. She should improve a lot in this race.
7) Nadowessi
She probably has the best pedigree in this field considering this is a turf race (Siuox Nation). This filly started her career in Ireland where she finished in second place. Then, she was purchased by Steven Rocco and West Point and brought to America. I am intrigued by Nadowessi, she competed at Naas, which isn’t a premier racetrack in Ireland (the top racetracks are Curragh and Leopardstown), she had a decent performance, and then, she was purchased by a partnership involving a top racing team in the sport. Her chance against this field is not clear, but due to her pedigree and because she already raced, I will include her in my picks.
8) Street View
This filly has the right pedigree for this type of race. Street Boss was a successful sprinter, and he has produced some nice turf horses. Street View has been training nicely, and she will be mounted by Irad Ortiz which is also a good sign. Finally, George Weaver has some nice numbers when debuting.
Picks: 5-7-6-8
Overview:
1) 6-3-7
2) 2-6-5
3) 1-5-4
4) 2-7
5) 7-1-6
6) 7-2-10
7) 1-7-3
8) 6-1-10
9) 6-5-7
10) 5-7-6-8
Remember to check out the late scratches and changes because there are some AE and MTO horses with a lot of chances. Good luck to y’all!