Hello, and welcome to another exciting weekend of horse racing!
We are just one week away from the Travers Day, and the contenders are coming to the racetrack to do their final breezes. I know fans are anxious and all the attention is placed on the best day of racing at the Spa, me included. I am waiting for next week to launch the project I have been working on for quite some time. It is specially designed for you guys, and I hope you enjoy this beautiful next step in Homestretch PPA’s path. But still, there are very good races this Saturday and there are some top-class horses I have been waiting to see here at Saratoga.
On Saturday we will witness a new edition of the Lake Placid Stakes G2, and most importantly, the Alabama Stakes G1. Wet Paint, who proved to be the best in the Coaching Club American Oaks, will look to build upon that effort in the Alabama Stakes. She is facing a very tough field, so it will be a top show and a very fun race to watch.
So, as the spectacle begins and with no further delay, I am pleased to present to you the best winning formula for horse racing bettors in the U.S. I wish y’all the best of luck and a great Saturday afternoon at the Spa. I hope you spend a wonderful day with your loved ones sharing the passion for horse racing.
Welcome to Saratoga!
Race 1: Mdn 136.5K, 6 – furlongs
Wow! This is a very interesting field to start the day with. It is full of colts with the potential to become stars. However, this is not an easy race for handicappers. Actually, it is a very even field. Considering the amount of money invested in these racehorses, their connections, and the top pedigree many of them have, we can only assume how good they might be. However, it is not possible to determine who is the best colt at this early stage of their racing career. Look for bullet time workouts, top riders, trainers, and owners. Probably the center of the stage will be for Hunt Ball, who happens to be Cody’s Wish half-brother.
1)Risk It
You know, because of the poor racing career of Risk It’s siblings, I was tempted to leave him out of my selections. He is a half-brother of Mighty Madison, a filly by Nyquist who was considered as a potential star but never met the expectations. Mighty Madison debuted against Hoosier Filly and had a decent performance. But after that, she never managed to break her maiden at a premier racetrack. She finally won one race at Turway Park, and then, unfortunately, she disappeared from the racetracks. Risk It’s older brother never won a race. However, I changed my mind because he was purchased by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Three Chimneys Farm. Those guys are the same partnership that owned Risk It’s sire Gun Runner, and they have a 40% winning percentage. So, if they paid 500K to purchase this colt, Risk It must look very much like his father. Hopefully he will have at least some of his father’s talent. Finally, he has been training nicely and has showed tactical speed.
3)Hunt Ball
This racehorse is a Godolphin’s homebred, and a member of family 1-x. Hunt Ball has a top-class pedigree and the potential to become a future star. If you want a prove of that, just look at his big brother’s career (Cody’s Wish). His dam, Dance Card, won four races out of seven, and never ended up outside the money, what a family! Hunt Ball is also trained by Bill Mott and will be mounted by Junior Alvarado, the winning duo that gave Cody Dorman’s family many wonderful moments to remember. This colt has been training well and has enough workouts to be ready to hit the track for the first time.
4)Middle Market
The duo of Chad Brown and Javier Castellano has a 39% winning ratio in the past 365 days. If you add to the equation that this is a colt owned by Klaravich Stables, and that team wins 29% of the time. Even more, Brown has a 25% winning percentage when debuting in a maiden special weight race. By doing the math you will obtain that this colt already has around 40% chance of winning this race. That’s a hot number to consider.
6)Act of Mutiny
This colt was supposed to have his debut back in July and got scratched. These were my comments at the time:
I am intrigued by this colt. He is half-brother of Catalina Cruiser. To put you up to speed, that horse won six races out of eight presentations, including the Pat O’Brien Stakes and the San Diego Handicap in consecutive years (2018-2019), and the True North Stakes G2. He also competed in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Act of Mutiny has a top-class pedigree (inbred 4x4 to Mr. Prospector, 5x4 to Northern Dancer, 5x5 to Secretariat, and 5x5x5x5 to Raise a Native). Finally, considering he is homebred by a top team like W.S Farish, I believe there is more in this colt than meets the eye.
I must add that three of the five products by Act of Mutiny’s dam to have run, have produced more than 600K in earnings. By no means leave this guy out of your tickets.
Picks: 3-6-1-4
Race 2: Mdn 136.5K, 1 1/16 – Mile (inner turf)
What a nice race to watch, but everything depends on the races being carried out on the grass. If we are off the turf, things will get very complicated, and we will have a lot of scratches. We are in the presence of talented colts with great pedigree, and top connections.
2)Tom Collins
This beautiful grey colt by Frosted has an interesting pedigree. He is a member of the family 1-x, and an inbred 3x4 to Deputy Minister, 5x4 to Mr. Prospector, and 5x5x5 to Seattle Slew. I also like that he is homebred. Phipps Stables and Stuart Janney LLC have a top breeding operation. They owned his dam, and Party Now’s progeny are all winners (those to have run). Party Now was a nice turf racehorse that won three races out of eight presentations and ended up in second place on three other occasions. Also, she was trained by Claude McGaughey. So, I believe Tom Collins is in the right hands and running over the right surface. Finally, this colt has been training nicely, and possesses enough breezes to be ready for the challenge. He will be my first pick for this race, even when Shug McGaughey doesn’t have a high winning percentage when debuting on the turf (12%).
4)Buffoon
This colt has an excellent pedigree for the surface (inbred 4x4 to Machiavellian, 4x5 to Danzig, and 5x5 to Sir Ivor). His sire, Lope De Vega, has produced some fine turf horses in recent years: Program Trading, Carl Spackler, Mondego, Silver Knott, etc. He was bred in France, sold to Pura Vida Investments LLC as a yearling and brought to the U.S. When you have a European colt, running on the grass in a long-distance race, you must never overlook him.
6)Walley World
This guy was supposed to have his debut back on Whitney Day, but the races were taken off the turf (too often in the U.S, a problem to be solve but that’s a topic for another newsletter). These were my comments since he was my second pick:
Okay, this horse is owned by a partnership involving some top racing teams. He has the perfect pedigree for the surface (1-x). Being a member of the family number one, he is a descendant of La Troienne, and he is also an inbred 4x4 to Mr. Prospector. In addition, he is trained by one of the best turf trainers in the US. Be careful with this horse. Don’t leave him out!
I still believe he is one of the top candidates for this race.
8)Blast Furnace
This guy is here after competing in a black type race at Gulfstream Park. I trust in Cherie Devaux’s judgement, she is a top trainer and, if she decided to stretch him out, is for him to have a much better performance. I like that she is now his trainer. Last time Blast Furnace ran against No Nay Mets and that’s a good colt. He has showed some tactical speed which might be an advantage against these debutants. The final times of both his presentations are fast enough to beat this field.
Picks: 2-6-4-8
Race 3: Alw 149.5K, 5 ½ – furlongs (turf)
This could be a tricky race; some of these fillies are much better that what their PP’s show, and considering the short distance, any setback and you’re done. Be careful and do not place high bets on these fillies.
2)Georgees Spirit
She came back to the track in April after spending five months away from them. In that race she faced a much better field, including the winner Love Appeals who is a top turf sprinter. She was there, close to the leaders, and didn’t end up far. I believe she had a good performance despite being away for a long period. The final time of that race was extremely good for this group. Considering she hasn’t run since that race back in April, and that she will be running with Lasix medication for the first time, it comes to my mind that she might suffer from a bleeding problem. Maybe the new medication will be a game changer for her. Considering the class of the fillies she has faced, I think she has a real chance against this field. However, she needs to break well and have a good trip. Having Flavien Prat back aboard is a good sign, he is a talented jockey that selects his rides carefully.
3)Vilet Gibson
Check out these names: Queen Picasso, Love to Shop, Liguria, Tax Implications, Soviet Excess. Some of those ladies are competing in the Lake Placid Stakes later in the afternoon, and Violet Gibson has faced them all in the past months. Her last performance in the Ontario Colleen Stakes was very decent despite the result. She showed some speed and was involved in the race until the last furlong. Now, having a cut back in distance and against an accessible field, she should perform much better. Also, having JL. Ortiz as her new rider is a huge improvement. Here is the replay of the Ontario Colleen Stakes at Woodbine:
6)Shootoutthelights
In my opinion, this is the filly to beat because of her early speed. Breeze Easy LLC has some great statistics, they win 21.89% of the time, and their horses end up inside the money 49.75% of the time. Those guys invested 525K to purchase this filly. In addition, Wesley Ward is probably the best trainer in the country for sprinters. Finally, if you add a top-class jockey like Irad Ortiz to the team, the result is a winning formula. She had a very good performance back in June, and if she repeats that race, she will be there at the wire for sure.
Picks: 3-6-2
Race 4: Clm 16K, 6 – furlongs, purse 42K
This is the part of the card that I don’t like at all, starting with this race until the sixth, the contests are difficult, and the fields aren’t even worst. I don’t trust in any of the horses in this field. Be careful with this one, and do not place high bets on these horses. It is going to be a hard task to get this pick 3 right, but I am up to the challenge. In this race, No More Talk will probably be the favorite. However, I saw that horse show signs of being exhausted in his last race. He has competed three times in just a little more than a month, while changing barns twice during that period. Even with Irad back aboard, I am going to bet against him. This is not a usual move for me, but I am pretty confident about my decision.
1)Ensign Parker
He had a great performance in his last race winning by a big margin and in a good time. He is the horse with the best performance of the field recently. What I don’t understand is why, if he improved amazingly under Natalia’s training, his connections decided to move him back to Handal’s barn. It doesn’t make sense. Still, he was the much the best in his last race and this is not a good field. Ensign Parker is a huge candidate for this race.
2)Handsome Cat
This is an important class relief for this horse and that’s something to consider. However, he is coming back after spending more than four months off the tracks, and his workouts aren’t good at all. The post position isn’t the best for him, and his rider doesn’t have a good winning percentage. So, yes, he has been competing against a better class, but he is definitely a horse to question. In any case, considering this field, I must admit he can win.
5)Ragtime Blues
I believe this horse is about to have a big race. After being moved to Peter Walder’s barn, Ragtime Blues has continued to improve. Amazingly, this horse has won eight races in his career. I think that the decision to have Luis Saez as his new rider it is not fortuitous. He has showed signs of being ready to have a huge performance. This horse has the early speed to be involved in the race since the beginning, and having a cut back in distance is perfect for him. Don’t leave him out.
9)Air Show
If it wasn’t for his last couple of performances, he would have been among the favorites. I mean, what happened to this guy in the past couple of months after he came back to the tracks? I think Rudy thought he had a better horse after Air Show’s victory in April and the way he was training. That’s why he pointed him to a 95K allowance race at Belmont Park. Rudy also decided to switch surfaces because Air Show won on the tapeta, which is a surface where turf horses tend to perform better than dirt horses. Then, he switched back to the dirt and the horse just didn’t show up. Now, if this horse performs as he did back at Aqueduct, he is a powerful contender. This could be a well-hidden winner.
Picks: 5-9-1-2
Race 5: Alw 149.5K, 6 – furlongs
I like Abadin for this race, even when he just broke his maiden. The problem is the strategy Rudy Rodriguez could use to compromise this horse’s performance and benefit his presented. Let me explain:
1)Lafitte’s Fleet
This horse is trained by Rudy Rodriguez and is coupled with Daufuskie Island since they are stablemates owned by Michael Imperio and Rudy himself. Because of that, I believe we are going to have a rabbit (decoy) in this race. I think they might use Daufuskie Island, who has tactical speed, to do the dirty work and force a fast pace that will affect Abadin’s performance. Pletcher’s trainee needs to be involved in the race since the start; he has an early running style and will challenge Daufuskie Island for the lead or will follow him closely. If they set a suicidal pace, Lafitte’s Fleet will be benefited and could catch them coming from off the pace. Considering the short distance, I don’t think he will be positioned too far back, he will hunt for the race just a few lengths behind and will make his move coming out from the far turn. The problem is that he must overcome coming out from a post to the inside of the track. Rosario must help him have a nice trip.
3)Abadin
This horse had a late debut due to some setbacks but possesses the pedigree and the physical attributes of a top racehorse. Abadin had a very nice victory a month ago to break his maiden. The fractional and final times of that race were bullet ones. I am aware that it is very difficult to win two in a row, specially after breaking your maiden. However, this is an accessible field. As I said, the problem is the presence of some horses with early speed. Irad must be smarter than them and avoid a fight for the lead, he can run a little more comfortable and make his move coming into the stretch. The problem is the post position, Irad must also have a nice trip. I believe Abadin has the quality to overcome this huge challenge.
5)A La Carte
With all the eyes placed on the favorites, this is a colt that could surprise everyone. He could be benefited from a suicidal pace and Rudy’s rabbit. We are talking about a Bill Mott’s presented mounted by Junior Alvarado who is having some bullet time workouts. In my opinion, the new equipment (Blinkers On) could be a game changer for him. A La Carte has come on quickly in the last month. Be careful with this guy, he is ready to have a big performance.
Picks: 3-1-5
Race 6: MC 40K, 1 1/16 – Mile (turf), purse 50K
There is an AE filly that has a very high winning probability (Arisaema), if she finally enters the race, you must include her in your picks.
5)Pinstripepizzo
Among all these untalented fillies, I think she is the one that better handles the distance. I also like that she drops in class. Remember that these races are won 68.7% of the time by one of the two horses in the field with the faster pace at the latter section of the race, and she is one of them. If you take a closer look, you will find that she is the most expensive racehorse in the field (purchased for 200K). There is racing potential in this filly.
9)Leadership Ability
The fact that she is owned by Klaravich Stables and trained by Chad Brown is a guarantee of her being a racehorse with tons of potential. Also, because she is trained by Brown, I am sure that she is well prepared to have a successful comeback race. Chad never runs a horse that is not physically ready. Considering the final time of her debut race, and the way she performed at the time, she is the logical selection for this race.
Picks: 9-5
Race 7: Lake Placid Stakes G2, 1 1/16 – Mile (inner turf), purse 200K
This is a great field. I believe these top-class fillies will delight us with a great show. I am going to use three fillies for this race, all of them trained by Chad Brown. I think it is very difficult that Chad doesn’t get inside the winner circle after this race.
2)Aspray
After watching the replay of the Belmont Oaks Invitational several times, I think she still had something left in the tank at the wire. Maybe she ran too close to the pace setters and that compromised her closing kick. We must consider that, in that race, she was moving up in class and being stretched out at the same time, that’s hard to overcome. These were my comments regarding this filly before the Belmont Oaks Invitational:
If she manages to win this race, she is definitely a group one racehorse. This is a big move up in class for her and she is also being stretched out. Both facts play against her odds. However, she is three for three and you should never leave out of your picks an unbeaten horse. Also, I am not sure if it was for other reasons, I don’t even know if it was Prat’s decision, but having Flavien aboard this filly instead of riding Prerequisite suggests that Aspray might be a stronger candidate. I like this filly, she is a daughter of Up by Galileo, a nice turf mare that competed twice in the Breeders’ Cup. In addition, her sire has produced some great racehorses like City of Light and National Treasure. The final time of her last race is extremely good, don’t leave her out.
She was very good despite the odds, here is the replay of the Belmont Oaks Invitatinal:
4)Tax Implications
I think this filly had some bad trips and a quote of bad luck in her last couple of performances. She should have won the Lake George Stakes. Tax Implications was too wide open in the far turn, and Surge Capacity had a perfect trip close to the rail. In fact, at the latter section of the race, Secret Money also made Tax Implications lose her momentum because her rider was using the whip on his right hand and Tax Implications was coming with a big bid on that side. The filly hesitated just for a second and that also affected her. I think Tax Implications could have a successful performance this time. Here is the replay of the Lake George Stakes:
8)Prerequisite
Check my comments before the Belmont Oaks Invitational:
This filly has surprised me in a positive way. She won the Wonder Again Stakes wire-to-wire, and the fractional and final times were bullet ones. I didn’t expect her to win her first G2-Stake in her first try competing in a G-Stakes and against such a fantastic field. That is more than enough to consider her for this race. In addition, I believe she will be benefited by the lack of early speed, there is no tactical speed in this field besides her. If Irad Ortiz manages to relax her in the mid-section of the race, and she enters the homestretch with some separation, Prerequisite will be very difficult to overcome. Here is the replay of the Wonder Again Stakes:
There is not much to add. Yes, now there is some early speed that could make things a little more difficult for her, we have Heavenly Sunday, Gloria’s Princess, and Soviet Excess, which have tactical speed. But I think Irad could stay a couple of lengths behind and make his move around the far turn. Prerequisite is a very good filly that should be deciding this race.
Picks: 2-4-8
Race 8: OC 80K, 1 – Mile, purse 162.5K
I am going to use two ladies for this race. I really like Nostalgic, and I am tired of losing money on Gerrymander, but considering the race forecast, Brown trainee can win this race wire to wire.
3)Gerrymander
She is always there but never wins. I have been selecting this filly for quite some time, and I am not going to lose my tickets to Gerrymander after having her as my first pick twice before. When you do that, that’s when the horse win. A couple of races ago she was an odds-on favorite, and this is what I said at the time:
Even when she performs better as a frontrunner, I believe she can be a tactical horse. Her best performance (G2-Stakes victory) was in the Mother Goose Stakes 2022. Where she was able to relax and had a strong finish at the latter section of the race. Here is the replay of that race:
As you can see, she was tactical and allowed Juju’s Map and Shahama to pick up the pace while she got well positioned a couple of lengths off the pace. After that, she made her move coming into the stretch and the race was over. Gerrymander must have a similar performance. I do believe she is the best filly of the field, but she needs to control the speed. She will run with Lasix medication for the first time, and that could help her have a successful performance. Gerrymander has been training very well since May to get in shape for this challenge. There are no excuses if she doesn’t deliver in this race.
That relaxed trip might happen in this race, and she becomes unbeatable. However, I am tired of Gerrymander’s excuses.
7)Nostalgic
I really like Nostalgic for this race. In her past presentation she was coming back after spending eight months off the tracks, and she had a top performance despite finishing in second place. In my opinion, she was fantastic considering the field and the time she spent away. Now, she should perform even better. This time, the race could be on to a faster pace, and she will be strongly benefited if that’s the case. She is the only tactical filly of this field. Godolphin’s homebred, trained by Mott, and mounted by Alvarado, she will be my first pick for this race.
Picks: 7-3
Race 9: Alabama Stakes G1, 1 ¼ – Mile, purse 600K
Considering the long distance, I believe this race will be decided by three fillies: Wet Paint, Julia Shining, and Gambling Girl.
2)Wet Paint
She is the logical favorite, the longer the distance the better for her. Look how she defeated Sacred Wish in the Coaching Club American Oaks:
This daughter of Blame and Godolphin’s homebred has proved to be a magnificent thoroughbred. Her connections are very confident about the longer distance being perfect for her. I must admit that I’m a little worried by the lack of pace. It is difficult to have a strong closing kick in a 1 ¼ - mile race, and even worst when the frontrunners still have something left. Maybe Randomize could add some speed to this race.
3)Julia Shining
I am not going to leave Malathaat’s little sister out of my tickets! I am very confident that she can handle the distance. In fact, I think she might be a hard nut to crack for Wet Paint. However, she runs better when coming from off the pace, so I believe she will be positioned next to Wet Paint at the back of the pack. Meaning that she will also depends on the race being held at a normal or fast pace. I have been following her career since she hit the track for the first time, and I know she is a top-class filly who can beat this elite field. In my opinion, she was too close to the pace setters in the Ashland G1, she runs better coming from far back to have a strong finish.
7)Gambling Girl
In my opinion, she didn’t show up in the Coaching Club American Oaks. She is much better than what she showed in that performance, that’s her only bad presentation. What I like about her is that she can be positioned much closer to the pace setters than Wet Paint and Julian Shining. If she is healthy, and Irad makes his move sooner than the others, she can win this race. Just the fact that Irad is back on top of her is very good sign. Gambling Girl already defeated Wet Paint in the Kentucky Oaks; she might do it again. Don’t leave her out.
Picks: 2-3-7
Race 10: OC 62.5K, 1 – Mile (turf), purse 156K
You know, optional claiming races are won 71.2% of the time by a horse which is not for sale. Because of that I am going to use only two horses for this race. Both are much better horses than the ones in this field but have gone through a lot of physical problems. I still consider them top-class turf horses.
2)Napoleonic War
I have been talking about this horse since May 2022. That was just a few months before he stopped training and spent a year off the tracks. I even selected him among my picks for the Belmont Derby Invitational 2022. These were my comments at the time:
After Flavien Prat became his rider and because he is now running over a longer distance, this colt is now considered as one of the favorites to win the Belmont Derby. In addition, the presence of horses with tactical speed like Classic Causeway, forces Emmanuel to run at a faster pace at beginning of the race. Considering their last confrontation, this would favor Napoleonic War. Most likely Emmanuel will get tired at the latter section of the contest. Napoleonic War is a top contender for this race.
What?! That race marked the beginning of Nations Pride dominion in this category, the European lost by a neck to Classic Causeway who was switching surfaces for the first time and won wire to wire. This means that Napoleonic War was competing at the highest level against the best turf horses of his generation. Unfortunately, he was seriously injured and stopped running for almost a year. He came back and had a very nice performance against a similar field. I think he should be back in full shape, and if that’s the case, he should be deciding this race.
9)Verbal
He had an awful trip in his last race. I think he was the best horse then, and I believe he is the best horse now. Unfortunately for this horse, he has gone through a lot of physical problems and have just competed six times in two years. Verbal is a fantastic Juddmonte’s homebred. He has an amazing turf pedigree, and he should have been one of the best of his generation. If this horse is healthy, he should beat this field. Now, with blinkers on, I think it will be very hard for these contenders to beat him.
Picks: 9-2
Race 11: MC 40K, 5 ½ – furlongs (turf), purse 50K
As usual we have an awful field to end the day with. There is no talent in this group. I am going to use a single for this race since I believe this colt is the only racehorse in the group with a chance. I don’t know if the coupled horses will finally enter the race, if they do, you should add them to your picks.
9)Henson
If you have a field like this one, and you find a horse with a decent performance, who happens to be owned by Madaket Stables, trained by Brad Cox, and mounted by Johnny V, that’s the horse you want to bet on. The final time of Henson’s debut race was too good for this field, and he showed some speed which is perfect for a sprint race. His last breeze coming into this race was a bullet time one. If everything goes normally, he should beat this field easily.
Picks: 10
Overview:
1) 3-6-1-4
2) 2-6-4-8
3) 3-6-2
4) 5-9-1-2
5) 3-1-5
6) 9-5
7) 2-4-8
8) 7-3
9) 2-3-7
10) 9-2
11) 10
Remember to check out the late scratches and changes because there are some MTO and AE horses with a lot of chances. Good luck to y’all!
Note: If you are a professional gambler or a horse racing fan who likes to make some money by betting on the right horse, you should upgrade to my paid subscription, and you will be able to see the top bets for the day according to the winning probability and the payout. Also, you will know how many stakes you should bet on each racehorse. I have a question for you:
How much money could you make by placing an optimal amount on a horse with a fair payout?
Subscribe for more.
REFERENCES:
Pedigree Online. Thoroughbred Database
International Federation of Horse Racing Authorities (IFHA)
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Homestretch PPA Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.