Hello for another exciting day at Saratoga! We have some big races this Saturday like the Coaching Club American Oaks G1, where the top fillies in the US (Nest and Secret Oath) are going to give it another try to see who the best filly is. Maybe, next time we see these ladies, it will be at the Breeders’ Cup.
Race 1: Mdn 105k, 1 1/16 Mile Turf
What a difficult race to start the day with. We are talking about two-years old maidens and some of them are going to hit the track for the first time. In addition, this is a two turns race and none of these colts have ever run the distance. Be careful and do some smart betting on this one.
7)Activist Investing
This colt was purchased by Klaravich Stables for a price of 313.9k and more interestingly, the sire (Kingman) is a classic winning miler. So, we know that the pedigree of this colt allowed him to run over the distance. Since he is half brother of Domestic Spending (a great turf performer and G1 winner) he should be a perfect horse for the surface. On top of that, he is trained by Chad Brown who’s winning percentage for debuting on turf is 21%, and he will be mounted by Irad Ortiz the hot jockey of the moment. For all these reasons I consider him to be my first choice.
9)Reckoning Force
Joseph O’Brien knows how to make his horses reach their full potential when running in the US. This colt’s first presentation in Ireland was very good, finishing third at 3 ½ lengths behind Cash or Crypto. This guy can run on turf, and we will see how he performs over the mile. You must consider this horse.
8)Mo Treasure
We are talking about a colt who ran against Curly Jack (last week’s contender at the Sanford), so racing against this group is a drop-class situation for him. He had some good performances, and he is running with blinkers for the first time, so he should improve a lot. He is the number one in prime power rating (123.1) and the most experienced colt of the field. For all these reasons this is a horse to take into account.
4) Wideright
Finally, this son of Uncle Mo is another horse that we should consider for this race. He has some very good workouts, and the hot trainer-jockey combo of Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado is always a good performance warranty.
Picks: 7-9-10-4
Race 2: Clm 35k, 5 ½ F Turf. Purse 50k.
Considering the low level of this class, and the fact that all these horses are for sale, this is a race to beware. You should have some caution placing your bets.
7)Brazillonaire
After watching his last race in which he had an outstanding performance regarding this class, winning wire-to-wire in a great final time of 1:20 and three-fifths. I think there is a big gap between this horse and the rest of the field. He ran two races seven days apart and kept improving. When he started campaigning, he was considered a group one horse, trained by Chad Brown, and owned by Peter Brant. So, this guy has run against better horses. The fact that he is going to race in a shorter distance will benefit him. However, due to the speed of some of the contenders, he will not be able to go for an early lead, so he will have to follow the pace and beat them at the home stretch. I really like this guy.
6)Pirate Life
Even though he ended up at 37 lengths in his last race, that 92k race was taken of the turf to a sloppy dirt track and shouldn’t be considered. Before that race, he was unbeaten after two presentations at Gulfstream Park. The fact that he is downgraded from 92k to a 35k claiming race is not good at all. However, this class was the one he used to race at in Florida. I don’t like the fact that he is being sold after only one unusual presentation in New York.
4)Steelersfanforlife
If there is a tough battle at the front and they go off at a fast pace, this horse can surprise them close to the wire. We are talking about a long shot, but this racecourse is famous for this kind of upsets. Don’t leave him out.
Picks: 7-6-4
Race 3: Alw 115k, 6F.
A very interesting race with a lot of potential. Some of these fillies spent almost a year away from the tracks but are very talented.
6)Repealing
I am going to start with her because she hit the track for the first time in July 2021 running against Echo Zulu who won the Eclipse Award as the best two-year old filly in 2021. After that race she didn’t run again until last month, reappearing at Churchill Downs in a 120k maiden race which she won easily by 3 ½ lengths showing a great performance. I believe her to be one of the best fillies for the race.
7)Union Lake
Another filly who was in a similar situation than Repealing. She came back after almost a year and had some troubles with the post position. She ran close to the rail following the pace but entering the home stretch she found some traffic and had to wait to find the hole inside. This incident was taken into advantage by Amaretti who took the lead and almost won the race. However, Union Lake never gave up and came back to finish the job showing some racing skills and a lot of courage. In addition, she has some good workouts proving that she is ready for the challenge. Definitely a filly to consider.
1)Bank on Anna
The fact that she is starting by the post position #1 complicates her trip. I don’t believe she will be comfortable going for an early lead to avoid getting into trouble in a fast-paced race. However, she has showed some class by winning three out of six and her last performances are very good. I consider her to be a filly to watch.
3)Jane Grey
This filly has got a lot of potential because she has the pedigree, and she is bred and owned by Godolphin and trained by Bill Mott. After hitting the track for the first time in September 2020 she had some troubles which kept her away for almost two years. She reappeared last month ending up second in a 92k race, where in my appreciation, she wasn’t fully ready and needed that race to get back on shape. I believe she will improve a lot and should end up across the board.
4) Breakfastatbonnies
Even though she is the number one in prime power ratings and has won three out of six, the fact that she hasn’t run since February and that her last victory came on an optional claiming race with a price of 45k back in December, makes me be very doubtful about her chances in this race. This is a tougher challenge with way better fillies than the ones she used to race with. I am going to pass on her this time.
Picks: 6-7-3
Race 4: Mdn 105k, 1 Mile Turf.
5)Herington Rocket
In her last race she was reappearing after eight months without racing. She had a very bad trip and gave Cadencia a big advantage on the last turn since she was very wide open. This Chad Brown filly will be my first choice for this race.
3)Wings Like Eagles
What a bad trip she had on her last presentation. Jose Luis Ortiz never knew what to do with the traffic in front of him and performed badly. I believe that the increase of distance will benefit her, and against all the fillies that ran the same race, she is undoubtedly the top choice. Bill Mott chose Luis Saez to be her rider because he believed him to be the ideal jockey for her. In my opinion, she will improve and most likely will end up across the board.
1)Mozay
Another filly presented by Bill Mott in this race. She performed great on her last presentation and still had something left in the tank after the finish line. She is the first in prime power ratings and if Alvarado manages to avoid trouble regarding the post position, she will be a tough contender to beat.
6)Veronica Green
Never leave out a filly trained by Chad Brown, mounted by Irad Ortiz, and owned by Peter Brant. Just don’t.
Picks: 5-3-1-6
Race 5: CCAOaks G1, 1 1/8 Miles Purse 500k.
The race of the day. I believe this is going to be a rematch for Nest and Secret Oath, in my opinion there is no room for big upsets in this one. What a beautiful race to watch.
3)Nest
It is true that she lost against Secret Oath in the Kentucky Oaks. However, after that race she improved in an amazing way in the Belmont Stakes against the colts. The numbers of that performance (SPD=108) are way better than any of the others obtained by these fillies. If she manages to be a litter closer to Secret Oath and don’t get to far behind entering the home stretch, she could beat her. She will be the best filly in that final stretch.
5)Secret Oath
This is the filly to beat, she is the current champion of these three-year old fillies. She will be close to the leader following the pace but avoiding any trouble. Close to the last turn, she will come hard and try to take the lead before entering the home stretch. If she manages to establish some separation between her and Nest after the final turn, she will be very difficult to overcome. The problem for her would be if Society goes off for a very fast pace and, in order to follow it, she could waste a lot of stamina which she will need in the home stretch to beat Nest.
Picks: 3-5
Race 6: Mdn 105k, 6F.
What an incredible difficult race to predict, we are talking about a lot of top pedigree debutants. In this case I am going to stay with three colts.
1)Summonyourcourage
This son of Practical Joke and Queen of the Realm is valuated at 500k. He is owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher, a very tough owner-trainer combo. His advantage is that he already hit the tracks and has a little more experience than the first timers. His past performance against Mo Strike puts him at the top of the chart, because if the winner of the Sanford runs against these guys, he will be a clear favorite.
2)Fool Moon Madness
I really like the way he has been working out. His trainer Michelle Nevin decided to push him hard two weeks ago at Belmont and he performed nicely running 4F, clocking a time of 0:46 seconds and three-fifths, then she let him settle in at Saratoga with only a warmup of 4F in 0:50 and two-fifths. This colt got some speed and could be deciding the race.
8)Phelpsy
A million-dollar son of Into Mischief. This colt has some excellent workouts and everything surrounding this guy makes me consider him the top choice for the course. For example, the combo Lawrence-Brown-Ortiz. I am going to stay with him as my first pick.
Picks: 8-1-2
Race 7: Mdn 88k, 5F Turf.
2)Tough Street
Another filly presented by Chad Brown. This three-year old spent eight months away from the tracks. However, she has very nice workouts and now she is going to race with Lasix medication, some good signs for having a great comeback. She is going to run on turf for the first time, but she is a turf filly. Last time the race was taken off the surface because the Stewards considered inadvisable to run on turf due to the track conditions. Her first presentation against November Rain is really good, and now that she is more mature, well mounted by Irad Ortiz, and running on turf she will improve notoriously.
4)Sinfully Sweet
Her last race was amazing, unfortunately she lost by a nose. However, she beat some of the fillies who are racing here and Dream Central, who won her race against Royal Dancer. So, I believe her to be the top candidate for the race. The only problem I see is the shorter distance since she usually likes to come from afar at the end to win the race. However, I think she will overcome every obstacle and win the race.
9)Royal Dancer
She got the speed to fight for the early lead and she is very tough to beat if she enters the home stretch at the front. The shorter distance will benefit her regarding her last performance. Don’t leave her out of your tickets.
Picks: 4-2-9
Race 8: Alw 115k, 6F.
This is a race full of good colts with a lot of potential. Nevertheless, I am going to stay with the one that I consider to be the fittest horse currently.
7)Highly Respected
On July 16th he had a spectacular workout of 4F in 47 seconds and two-fifths, which became the best workout of the day (1st out of 105). This colt presented by Chad Brown will be mounted by jockey Irad Ortiz for the first time in substitution of Manny Franco. Lucky for him he’s got the hottest rider of the moment. Last time he was running for the mile on a sloppy track, and despite that, he almost won in a very good time considering the track conditions. Now, on a shorter distance and in better shape, I believe this guy is going to win easily.
Picks: 7
Race 9: OC 62.5k purse 120k, 1 1/8 Miles
This type of race is won almost every time by horses which are not for sale. Take this into account when selecting your picks.
1)Uncle Moonlight
A son of Uncle Mo whose last performance was excellent, beating horses like Power Agenda very easily. He won wire-to-wire in a very good time of 1:35 for the mile. That was a 92k allowance and now he has drop-classes to an OC of 62.5k, this fact increases his chances. We don’t have much speed in this race, so if he manages to go for an early lead and set the pace, he will be tough to overcome in the home stretch.
7)Stage Raider
Another good mount for Irad Ortiz this Saturday. If he wants to win the riding title in Saratoga, this is the type of race that he should shine at. Stage Raider ran very well against Highly Motivated in his last race; I believe that he gave up some ground and that’s why he ended up in second place. He’s got the best LP for the race so the longer distance would benefit him a lot. He should be the favorite and considered in every exotic betting.
5)Air Attack
This is the only for sale horse that I am going to consider. Last time he had an excellent performance in Rosario’s hands. He gave up a lot of ground in the last turn but still had a lot in the tank going to the wire. If he manages to repeat his last race, he will surely be deciding this one.
Picks: 7-1-5
Race 10: Caress Stakes G3, 5 ½ F Turf.
I believe this is going to be a rematch between Caravel and Star Divine. Both are in great shape and have excellent workouts.
1)Caravel
This is the mare to beat. She used to run against top mares like Golden Pal, and she performed great against the boys finishing third behind Arrest Me Red and Bran. The final time of her last race is extremely good, and I don’t believe that any of the frontrunners of this competition can keep up against her. She will have to watch out for the fillies and mares that can come from behind, but this is a 5 ½ furlongs race, so it isn’t probable that a mare that couldn’t follow a fast pace had a chance close to the wire.
3)Star Divine
Last time she was beaten by Caravel, but she had some problems regarding the post position. Because she started next to the rail, she was forced to follow Caravel in a very fast pace which doesn’t match her racing characteristics. In the home stretch she didn’t find a way through because Caravel closed the rail and ended up with her options. Now she will have more room to maneuver and, if she follows the leaders without entering the fight, she will be able to beat Caravel in the home stretch.
Picks: 1-3
Race 11: Alw 50k, 1 1/16 Mile Turf. Purse 70k
This is going to be a slow-paced race. There is no speed regarding these horses and that will benefit whoever goes for an early lead or gets close to it.
8)Catch That Party
Despite what I just said, I’m going with this guy as my top choice. Even though he lacks the speed; the final time of his last race is very good. We should take into account that this horse had a very bad start in his last presentation, where he ended up ten lengths away in the first call of the race. Michael Maker knows this horse is ready to win and that he should be across the board in this race, that’s why he decided to go with Irad Ortiz as his rider. This guy is going for the win.
7)Shinsun
Another colt who lacks the speed to follow the race but who won in a good way as a first timer. Even though he is going to run against a better class, these horses aren’t better than him. Watching his last race, I believe this colt has a lot of options to be deciding the race.
10)Lord Flintshire
This horse has dropped a couple of classes. They are looking for the right race for him to end up at the top. He is the number two in prime power ratings after Catch That Party and surely, he will be among the favorites.
6)Topic Changer
Here we have some speed which is a very good advantage. Topic Changer had an excellent performance in his last presentation. He was next to the rail and had some trouble making his way through. Despite that, he came out on top and showed nice racing skills. Christophe Clement is one of the hot trainers of the moment and Dylan Davis is trying to bounce back after losing the Belmont riding title to Irad Ortiz. If he stays close to the leaders and make his move around the last turn, he will be very hard to catch before the wire.
Picks: 8-6-7-10
Overview:
1) 7-8-9-4 (7 Where the money is)
2) 7-6-4
3) 6-7-3
4) 5-3-1-6
5) 3-6 (3 Top Bet)
6) 8-1-2
7) 4-2-9 (4 Big money shot)
8) 7 (Top Bet)
9) 7-1-5
10) 1-3
11) 8-6-7-10