Hello, my dear horse racing fans around the world!
I would like to start this week analysis by thanking Roberto Rodriguez for inviting me to participate in his show @DRFenEspanol which was broadcasting live from Saratoga on Whitney day. I am grateful for the opportunity, and I hope to continue collaborating with you guys in the future. Thank you!
Another important information for my followers is that, because of the Saratoga’s turf track conditions, in the past weeks the races have been taken off the grass. That compromised my entire analysis because I do my research before those announcements, and I cannot update the information as fast as I would like. So, pay special attention to those changes, and if the races are off the turf, check out the MTO horses, they decide the race 78% of the time.
Considering the Saturday’s top G-Stakes are turf races, I believe we will be on the grass except for an extreme weather. Hopefully it will be a fantastic afternoon full of top performances at my favorite track in the U.S.
So, as the spectacle begins and with no further delay, I am pleased to present to you the best winning formula for horse racing bettors in the U.S. I wish y’all the best of luck and a great Saturday afternoon at the Spa. I hope you spend a wonderful day with your loved ones sharing the passion for horse racing.
Welcome to Saratoga!
Race 1: Mdn 88K, 6 – furlongs
I like that the day starts off with this race. I believe there will be an odds-on favorite, and I do agree Tall Paul is the colt to beat. His toughest rival is Quiet Wisdom, a nice outcross owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher. But for me, I consider Tall Paul to be the right bet.
5)Tall Paul
This colt by Frosted is owned by a top racing team in the sport. To put you up to speed, Michael Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman are the owners of some top-class thoroughbreds like McKinzie, Hoppertunity, Cave Rock and Defunded. These guys have a 28% career winning percentage, and their horses end up inside the money 59.2% of the time. Those are amazing numbers. So, they have a very good eye for top performers, and they invested 475K to acquire this beautiful colt. Tall Paul is the third product by Ananda, and both his big brothers have become winners (Ananroad and Lord Shaftesbury). In addition, the final time of his debut race was almost two seconds faster than those marked by some of the contenders who have already debuted. Finally, Tall Paul is trained by Bob Baffert and will be mounted by Joel Rosario. Considering this colt’s tactical speed, he should win this race gate-to-wire.
Picks: 5
Race 2: Mdn 136.5K, 5 ½ – furlongs (turf)
What a nice race to watch. I am pretty sure this group of colts will delight us with a great show. Some of these colts have great pedigree and top connections. We might be in the presence of some future stars.
2)Revelatory
I must consider this horse because he is a son of Munnings, homebred by St. Elias Stables, and trained by Todd Pletcher. That’s a winning combination (around 20% winning ratio), and even toughest if you add the best jockey in the country to the team (Irad Ortiz). However, Todd Pletcher doesn’t have a high winning percentage when debuting on the grass (10%). In this case, the statistics play against Revelatory. In addition, Revelatory’s workouts are few and not as good as expected. This colt is probably too green. I also believe that the distance is a little short for him to have a successful performance, but I am not going to lose my tickets to these guys.
3)Reverend Moon
He is a homebred by Robert Evans, a top owner who has a very nice breeding operation. Just to remind you, he is the owner of some top-class horses like Tonalist. I think he has a good pedigree for the distance (Omaha Beach by War Front), both his ancestors were fantastic sprinters. Check this out, Christophe Clement has a 20% winning percentage when debuting on the turf, and when Rosario rides for him, they also win 20% of the time. That’s a number to consider. Finally, Reverend Moon has enough workouts to be perfectly prepared to hit the track for the first time.
7)Ocean Mermaid
This doesn’t happen every day. Ocean Mermaid is the horse that I like the most for this race, and she is a filly competing against the young colts. But she is no a regular filly, Ocean Mermaid is the daughter of Sparkling Surf by Frankel, which makes her an inbred 4x5x5 to Danzig, 4x4 to Danehill, 5x5 to Northern Dancer, and 5x5 to Sharpen Up. That’s one of the best bloodlines currently. In addition, she was purchased by Stonestreet Stable for 252.5K at the Tattersalls October Sale and then brought to the U.S to start her racing career. She debuted in the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies at Gulfstream Park where she finished in second to Crimson Advocate. It was a great race, here is the replay:
The fractional and final times of that race were extremely fast, so it was a top debut for her despite ending up as the beaten favorite. She might be way better than the boys she is facing in this race. Finally, her trainer, Wesley Ward, is a sprint specialist, he has a 29% winning percentage for sprint races. This filly will be my top pick for this race.
9)King Julien
Okay, this colt’s half-sister Wide West (by Deer Valley) has become a very good racehorse. She has won two races out of four in 2023, and she even defeated the boys in the Roar Stakes. In that race she faced tough contenders like Dr. Oseran and Harry Time. So, considering Wide West success and the fact that King Julien is Deer Valley’s second product, there are high expectations placed on him. He was purchased for 300K, and he has been training nicely at Churchill Downs.
Picks: 7-9-3-2
Race 3: Alw 50K, 1 – Mile, purse 70K
I believe these fillies and mares are better than people think. They might not be G-Stakes contenders, but they are good racehorses. This is an interesting race.
1)Jolly Miss Jill
She has the best early speed of the group, and she won easily in her last presentation, even when she was running over a mile for the first time. Coming out from post number one, she could save a lot of ground, which is a good advantage. However, she needs to have a perfect start. There are two factors that make me doubt her chances. First, Jose Ortiz chose to ride April Antics over her, and second, she will be challenged for the lead since there is more tactical speed in this group.
2)Sa Foradada
She is the number one in prime power ratings (129.3), and she is the beaten favorite. I think she will perform much better this time because she doesn’t have to be involved in the race since the beginning. The fractional times of her last race were too fast for her to have a strong finish. I always pay attention to Irad’s moves, and most of the time I don’t consider a horse he chose not to ride. But in this case, I don’t think Icy Reply is a better filly than Sa Foradada. I do believe this mare will be the fastest horse at the latter section of the race. Don’t leave her out.
5)April Antics
This is the horse to beat. JL. Ortiz decided to ride her instead of Jolly Miss Jill. Also, April Antics is having a class relief. Last couple of races she has faced tougher contenders like Ichiban. She is a distance specialist, and when Ortiz rides for Kantarmaci, they win 33% of the time. I think having a top-class rider aboard will be a game changer for her. I also believe she will be benefiting from a fast pace.
Picks: 2-5-1
Race 4: Clm 32K, 6 ½ – furlongs, purse 64K
This is not a good race. I don’t trust in any of the horses in this field. Be careful with this one, and do not place high bets on these horses.
1)Dangerous Ride
He might be the best racehorse here. Check out the horses he has faced in 2023: Super Chow, Forte, Federal Judge, Extra Anejo, Rocket Can, etc. This means that he has been competing against the best colts of his generation. Yes, I am aware that he has never been close to challenge those guys, but just his presence in those races makes him a horse to consider against this field. Additionally, the impost is way favorable for him because he will be ridden by the apprentice Jaime Torres (115.5 Lbs.). If he overcomes coming out from post number one, he should be there at the wire.
2) Thunderian
I have been following this horse for some time. In fact, he was my first selection when he competed at Belmont Park on May 27th. These were my comments at the time:
The final time of his last performance is better than any other marked by these contenders over 7 – furlongs. Also, Thunderian showed an interesting closing kick to end up just a couple of lengths behind the favorite Paros. He had some trouble following the pace at the early stages, but he was, along with Paros, the fastest horse at the latter section of the race. Because of that, I believe he will perform even better over a mile. Now, since he will be mounted by Irad Ortiz, he already has a 33% winning probability. I believe that the presence of Smooth Flyin Mike will force a fast pace, this means that Ortiz must position this colt in a comfortable spot off the pace. By doing this I am confident that he will have a strong late run and will overcome his rivals before the wire. Thunderian is a colt bred by Godolphin, he is the second product of Larkin, a nice mare by Bernardini who belongs to Godolphin. I think he is an unexposed horse who hasn’t showed his full potential yet.
I didn’t like the decision to get him involved in that race since the beginning, the fractional times were too fast for this class, and he runs much better coming from off the pace. After that race, he had a bad performance under Manny Franco’s commands (also because they went for an early lead). Then, David Jacobson decided to switch surfaces which I didn’t like at all. Now, back on the dirt, and against an accessible field, this horse is dangerous. Don’t leave him out.
6)One Giant Leap
We are talking about a horse who has never been outside the first two places, who has won two races out of three (all sprints), and who is trained by a sprint specialist like Wesley Ward (29%). Those numbers are more than enough to beat this untalented field. However, this will be his first race after being gelded, and usually horses don’t have good performances after the procedure. In any case, when Rodriguez rides for Ward they win 30% of the time, that statistic makes them a hot trainer-jockey combo.
Picks: 2-1-6
Race 5: Mdn 136.5K, 7 – furlongs
Okay, this is a fun race to watch. I am intrigued by Pletcher’s colt Eliminate. His workouts are fantastic. There are three horses to be considered as his top rivals: #2 Chaperone from family 1c, #5 Deterministic (a half-brother to Frills, a nice mare who won 10 races out of 29 presentations) and #7 Nullify (American Pharoah – Blame It On Alphie by Blame). However, I don’t think those colts are close to matching the current shape of Eliminate.
1)Eliminate
This colt is owned by a new partnership between Spendthrift Farm LLC and Repole Stable, those are two top-class teams in the sport. They spent 525K to purchase this magnificent colt by Curlin. What caught my attention is the way Eliminate has been training since he arrived at Saratoga, all his workouts are fantastic: 06Aug Sar 4f ft :47.4 Bg 5/204, 29Jly Sar 4f ft :47 Bg 1/101, 23Jly Sar 4f ft :48.2 B 16/96. I must remind you that Pletcher does not push his trainees to their limits when training. So, I mean, this colt is flying over the Saratoga track while staying completely in hand. Finally, he will be mounted by Irad Ortiz who is Pletcher’s most trusted jockey. Yes, he will be an odds-on favorite, but there is no way to question his chances in this race. He just seems like the best horse by miles. The only thing Ortiz must do is break well; the rest is on the horse.
Picks: 1
Race 7: Mdn 88K, 6 – furlongs
This might be a tricky race, there are some fillies here that I believe are a little better than what their PPs shows. There are also some debutants with interesting pedigree and connections. Be careful with this one, it isn’t an easy contest for bettors.
1A) Foxy Cara
I must admit that I don’t love this filly, but she had a very nice performance in her last presentation competing against Ichiban. Also, she is the number one in prime power ratings (123.9), and she is well adapted to running in this category. On the other hand, Foxy Cara has proved she is the kind of horse that can keep going all the way to the wire and always has a strong closing kick. Because of that I cannot leave her out of my picks.
2)Nolita
This is the filly I like the most. She debuted on a sloppy track, had a very bad trip, and still managed to get inside the money. I don’t think that Mim, who is the second horse in prime power ratings behind Foxy Cara, will beat her again. Nolita is a filly trained by Bill Mott and will be mounted by Junior Alvarado, that’s a hot trainer-jockey combo. She is the fourth product by Nicole’s Miss El, and the third to have raced. Both her siblings who competed became winners: Unique Unions (10-2-2-3) and Isaiah Isaiah (11-2-2-3). I think she will turn out to be a nice filly, I believe she will perform much better now. My only concern is the post position because she doesn’t have tactical speed. That’s why I consider betting on her a little risky, but still, she is the filly I like the most.
10)Souffle
I have been following her for quite some time. I even selected her as my first pick for her comeback race:
A Candy Ride’s daughter who is an inbred 3x5 to Danzig and 5x4 to Mr. Prospector. She has a nice pedigree for the surface and is probably the most talented filly of the field. Since she is a three-year-old, she will be running with Lasix medication for the first time. This medication could help her improve significantly. Her dam Portmagee won three races out of eight running on the grass and compete in several black-type races. Her owners, Waterville Lake Stables, have some fantastic statistics, their horses finish inside the money 54.55% of the time. After Souffle stopped working out back in October due to some physical problems, she came back to the Belmont racetrack in March to resume her training. Since then, she has been getting better and now is ready for the challenge. With Joel Rosario aboard, this filly should be considered has a first pick.
She wasn’t ready for the challenge; she needed that race to get back to a 100%. After that, she switched surfaces and had a decent performance considering all the changes. A month later, she should be even better prepared, so she might surprise everyone and win the race.
11)Richies Princess
Her dam Rooney Doodle has produced some big winners like Dugout who won ten races out of twenty-three presentations or Jean Elizabeth who won fifteen races out of twenty-one. So, she has some interesting pedigree. In addition, she had a fantastic workout after being shipped to the Spa: 05Aug Sar 4f ft :47 B 1/50. Finally, she will be mounted by Irad Ortiz which is a good sign because this guy knows exactly what he is doing when choosing his rides, and when he rides for Rivelli, they win 40% of the time. Definitely a filly to consider for this race.
Picks: 2-1-10-11
Race 7: The Galway Stakes, 5 ½ – furlongs, purse 150K
This is a great field. Also, this race is a good measuring stick to see if Love Reigns is still one of the best turf sprinters in the U.S. I am a little worried about this race being taken off the grass because of the turf conditions in Saratoga. Hopefully, it will be on the grass and things will go on normally.
4)Love Appeals
I consider her to be among the top contenders for this race. She had a good performance in the Blue Sparkler Stakes despite loosing to Beauty of the Sea. I think she didn’t have the best trip coming out from post number one, and Geroux made his move a little late because he was looking for room to gain momentum. Here is the replay of the Blue Sparkler for you to draw your own conclusions:
In any case, she ran well, and if she gets involved a little sooner this time, it could be a different story. Clement has a high winning percentage when presenting a beaten favorite (26%). With Manny Franco on the reins, she will be deciding the race.
6)Redifined
This is a very good filly. Her only bad performance was back in March, when she was coming back to the tracks after four months to start her 2023 campaign. She has been training nicely since May, and she has come on quickly in the last couple of months after winning a 95K allowance race on June 3rd. Her workouts are bullet time ones: 05Aug CD 4f ft :47.4 B 4/98, 23Jly CD 4f ft :48.4 B 16/52, 27May Bel 4f ft :47.4 B 3/70. No wonder why Jose Ortiz is aboard this filly. Redifined has a real chance of winning this race, specially if she is positioned just behind the leaders and make her move coming into the stretch. Don’t leave her out.
8)Love Reigns
I remember many handicappers considering her the best bet in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint competing against the boys. I did include her in my picks but as my fifth pick, and I selected five horses for that complicated race. Lucky for me, the winner Mischief Magic was my second pick. These were my comments about Love Reigns at the time:
After coming back to the US, she won the Bolton Landing Stakes back at Saratoga. She was great in that race obtaining an 89 points Beyer Speed Figure. I believe the performance was better than the qualification. Wesley Ward decided not to run her in the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland a month ago, so she was fresh and rested for this big challenge. Taking a closer look to her workouts, I don’t know how well shaped she really is coming into this race considering that all her workouts since September have only been maintenance ones. She is a top-class sprinter and one of the favorites, but I think that she might be above her head against this field. Of course, she can win. However, she will need to perform as if she has never done to win against the colts.
After that race Ward gave her some resting time. She came back to the tracks in the FanDuel Limestone Stakes at Keeneland and she didn’t disappoint her fans, she won despite having an awful trip! Here is the replay:
In an article written by the NYRA Edited Press Release, they quote Ward’s comments regarding his trainee:
"She's training well," said Ward. "She works every week no worries just cruising right around there. She's fit and ready to go. When we put Rosario on, that's the guy we go to to kind of get them back there a little bit and come with a run. We'll let them 'speedies' go and then we'll come with a run."
Okay, I do believe she is the filly to beat, but this is a more difficult field. If she faces the same kind of trouble coming from off the pace, she will not catch these ladies. Rosario must avoid a compromised trip. Considering the post position, it is better if he manages to get to the outside and avoid traffic.
Picks: 8-4-6
Race 8: Herb Moelis Memorial Saratoga Special Stakes G2, 6 ½ – furlongs, purse 200K
Talking about memorials, I would like to take a minute to remember the amazing filly Maple Leaf Mel who died a week ago in the eighth race. Tragedy hit us in the Test Stakes just a couple of strides away from the finish line. When this magnificent filly, who had already beaten her rivals easily, fell to the ground with a broken leg, I cannot describe the feeling those of us who were there at the stands felt. The only sound I heard was the air leaving peoples lungs in a deep sigh. It was overwhelming. This filly delighted us with perfection, and yes, perfection is ephemeral, and once you witness it, you will never forget it. She was a champion thoroughbred, and she left the tracks unbeaten. I was wrong about the Test being a match race between Maple Leaf Mel and Pretty Mischievous because Mel was much the best. She will live forever in the hearts of those passionate for racehorses. My condolences to her trainer Melanie, her jockey Joel, and all her connections. I took this picture just minutes before this tragedy happened.
Okay, here are my picks for race number eight:
4)Haul
We all know that the combination of Eclipse Thoroughbreds, St. Elias Stables, Todd Pletcher, and Irad Ortiz is a winning formula (34%). That is an important statistic that makes me consider this colt for this race. He won easily in his debut, but he wasn’t facing a difficult field. The final time of that race is fine, but I don’t think he is fast enough to beat this group. He must improve to win this race. Still, he is the number one in prime power ratings (131.1), and the colt to beat.
5)Edified
Don Adam spent a huge amount to purchase this colt by Tapit (650K). Don is a top owner in the sport. Some of his best horses are Film Maker, General Jim, and Strike Charmer. Edified has an interesting pedigree, he is an inbred 3x4 to Mr. Prospector, 5x4 to Northern Dancer, and 5x5 to Buckpasser. I am aware that he debuted in a lower category racetrack like Ellis Park, but his performance was fantastic, and the final time of the race was good considering he is a two-year-old. Trained by Steven Asmussen and mounted by Joel Rosario, I believe he has a real chance here.
6)Rhyme Schemes
This guy broke his maiden winning by more than nine lengths. The final time of that race was almost three seconds faster than the one marked by Haul in his victory at Belmont Park. I know the tracks conditions are different, but three seconds is a huge gap of time, that’s around fifteen lengths. I think this colt could be a future star. He has an amazing pedigree because he is from family 1-n, a bloodline full of talented racehorses like Swale, Gallant Fox, and Sir Winston. Rhyme Schemes has plenty of room to grow, and I think he has the potential to become a top-class.
Picks: 6-5-4
Race 9: Fourstardave Handicap G1, 1 – Mile (inner turf), purse 500K
I know these horses too well. I think this is a match race between Pletcher’s trainees. I don’t see them losing to the rest of these horses, even when this is a good field and Casa Creed is the favorite.
1)Emmanuel
His performance in the Poker Stakes was too good not to take him into account. I know that Irad Ortiz, who is his regular rider, decided to ride aboard Annapolis instead. Maybe because Annapolis is a better miler and has more tactical speed to be positioned much closer to the leaders, which is good in a race where pace matters. However, I don’t see Casa Creed being Annapolis toughest rival, I think Irad must watch out for his little brother Jose Luis. I am pretty sure Emmanuel will be the fastest horse at the latter section of the race. Don’t leave him out.
4)Annapolis
He lost an impossible race against Casa Creed who was much better positioned in the Kelso, and Luis Saez took advantage of it. Annapolis was bottled up almost the entire trip, and then was forced to take a wide turn. Luis Saez won by making his move sooner, compromising Annapolis trip. I believe Irad is here for the revenge, and I agree with his decision to ride aboard this great miler. In my opinion, Annapolis is currently a better horse than Casa Creed, however, he will have to prove it on the tracks. Here is the replay of the Kelso Stakes, check it out:
Picks: 4-1
Race 10: Alw 50K, 1 – Mile, purse 70K
Most likely this race will be decided by statistics. Let me explain my point. There are three hot trainer-jockey combos in this race with high winning percentages (31%, 32% and 20%). If those numbers are correct, by selecting those three horses you will have an 83% chance of winning the race.
3)Order of Magnitude
This is the only horse of the field to have won three races, and all those victories came in 2023. He has won three out of six races in the current year. I understand this is a huge moving up in class for him. But he won his last race by seven lengths and the final time of the race was fast enough to beat this field. That’s why he is the third horse in prime power ranking for this race. The hot trainer jockey combo of Diodoro-Santana gives him around a 20% winning probability.
9)Memphis
This colt by Gun Runner was considered to have a top-class potential because of his interesting pedigree (inbred 3x3 to Quiet Dance, 5x4 to Seattle Slew, 5x5x5 to Fappiano, and 5x5x5 to Lyphard), and his physical attributes. That is why he was originally purchased for 850K. Unfortunately, he suffered from a lot of physical problems and never met the expectations. He was claimed from WinStar Farm, Sienna Farm, and Don Alberto Stable for only 40K. However, he was moved to Linda Rice’s barn, and she is an expert when recovering good horses and making them shine again. It might be too soon for him to have a successful performance because he has only been at Linda’s barn for almost a month, but he is a horse with tons of potential. If Linda manages to turn things around, he could win this race for sure. When JL. Ortiz rides for Rice, they win 32% of the time.
10)Ice Road
Considering his last couple of performances, I believe he is the horse to beat. Also, if you add Irad Ortiz to the equation, this horse must be included in your tickets. When Irad rides for D’Angelo they win 31% of the time. Big numbers in this race. I like that this horse is very tactical and could adapt to any type of pace. He will be deciding the race.
Picks: 10-9-3
Race 11: Alw 95K, 1 1/16 – Mile (inner turf)
This is a nice race to end the day with. I am going to select two fillies for this contest, and there is one that I like a lot (Waterville). Everything depends on the race being carried out on the grass.
1)Spinning Colors
Since she came back to the tracks, she has been performing very good. The final time of her last race, which she won, was two seconds faster than the one set by Silver Skillet who defeated many of the ladies in this group. Yes, this is a move up in class for her, but I believe she is more than ready for the challenge.
2)Waterville
Last time I selected Silver Skillet as my first pick, and I was right. But I must admit that Waterville was close to upsetting my victory. I was worried at the final section of the race because she was flying over the track. Her closing kick was very good. She didn’t have a comfortable trip; she was bottled up and Prat couldn’t make his move when he wanted to. Now, Christophe Clement decided to use blinkers on her so she can get more focused and sharper. I think this equipment will help her a lot. Considering her current shape, how she performed in her last race, the new equipment, and the fact that she will be mounted by Rosario, she must be considered as a first pick for this race. She is also the number one in prime power ratings (136.8).
Picks: 2-1
Overview:
1) 5
2) 7-9-3-2
3) 2-5-1
4) 2-1-6
5) 1
6) 2-1-10-11
7) 8-4-6
8) 6-5-4
9) 4-1
10) 10-9-3
11) 2-1
Remember to check out the late scratches and changes because there are some MTO and AE horses with a lot of chances. Good luck to y’all!
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REFERENCES:
Pedigree Online. Thoroughbred Database
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