Analysis of Kentucky Downs’ card, September 2nd, 2023
Hello, my dear racing fans around the world!
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This is my new gift for the horse racing community, and I hope you enjoy it! I also suggest you turn on notifications so you can receive push notifications when a noteworthy horse is about to run so you don’t miss a chance on making some money.
That said, this is a top weekend for turf runners. All the attention is focused on the Kentucky Downs racetrack. We have some big prize races on the Saturday’s card, like the 1,000K for the Gun Runner Stakes or the 150K maiden races. Also, there are two G-Stakes to be carried out on Saturday.
So, as the spectacle begins and with no further delay, I am pleased to present to you the best winning formula for horse racing bettors in the U.S. I wish y’all the best of luck and a great Saturday afternoon at the once called Dueling Grounds. I hope you spend a wonderful day with your loved ones sharing the passion for horse racing.
Welcome to Kentucky Downs!
Race 1: Mdn 150K, 1 – Mile (turf)
This is a good race to start the day with. There are some fillies in this field with the potential to become group one racehorses. Since many of them are debutants, remember to check for top pedigree, trainers, and jockeys.
2)Fun Loving
A filly with an interesting pedigree, she belongs to the 6a family and is an inbred 4x3 to Unbridled, 5x4 to Danzig, 5x4 to Seattle Slew, and 5x5x5 to Mr. Prospector. That’s a fine pedigree these days. Fun Loving has the advantage of having already competed for the first time. In her debut race, the pace was a little soft and the field wasn’t very talented. We are talking about her debuting in a 70K maiden race at Ellis Park. So, competing in a 150K maiden race at the Dueling Grounds will not be an easy task for her. However, she showed a powerful late kick and the fractional time for the final section of the race was good. Considering her pedigree and this being her second race, I think she has a real chance here.
8)Watchtower
This filly is a product of Peter Brant’s breeding operation at White Birch Farm. Her sire, Demarchelier, already produced a winner in France a couple of weeks ago (De Sica). In an article by Eric Mitchell for BloodHorse, where he relates De Sica’s victory, he quoted Peter’s comment about this new sire:
"He could get a great grass horse certainly, but he also has the influences of great American sires such as Seeking the Gold and Mr. Prospector that could result in some great dirt horses," he said.
Full article:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/271105/demarchelier-sires-first-winner-in-france
Watchtower has great pedigree for the surface, she belongs to the family 4m (same family that recently produced some top-class turf horses like Enable), and he is an inbred 4x4 to Northern Dancer, 4x4 to Seeking the Gold, 5x5x5 to Mr. Prospector, and 5x5 to Shirley Heights. This filly is trained by Chad Brown who has a great winning percentage on the surface. Considering her nice workouts and the mile distance, I believe this is the filly to beat.
11) Enigmatic
I like the way this filly has been training. She has enough breezes in order to be ready to compete, and some of those workouts are bullet time ones. She also has turf pedigree, and I like Brad Cox’ numbers debuting on the grass (high winning percentage). If you are looking to secure this race to start your picks, I think this filly is the right choice.
Important: Remember, this analysis is written before the race changes are announced, so be careful because we have some interesting AE fillies waiting to enter the race.
Picks: 8-2-11
Race 2: Mdn 150K, 1 – Mile (turf)
There is a filly here that belongs my Noteworthy Runners stable (Doral). So be careful with this filly even when she is probably not the first selection for this contest.
1)Heckled
Considering her past performances, this is the filly to beat. She is Godolphin’s homebred and has been competing against some tough horses. She even defeated Doral back at Keeneland. In her last race, she was involved since the beginning and still showed a powerful late kick. Unfortunately, she lost by a neck. I like that she can be involved in the race right from the start because I don’t see a lot of early speed here, so probably the pace will be a soft one. Meaning that she will be benefited and could win this race wire-to-wire.
2)Doral
She has a fantastic pedigree: Quality Road – Dacita by Scat Daddy. Family 3-f. Inbred 4x4x5 to Mr. Prospector, 3x4 to Gone West, 5x5 to Nijinsky, and 5x5x5 to Raise a Native.
Doral was purchased by Besilu Stables at the Keeneland September Sale for the high amount of 575K. To put you up to speed, Besilu Stables are the same owners of the champion Royal Delta, a beautiful mare who won twelve races including the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic in consecutive years (2011-2012), and who produced more than 4.8 million in earnings. This racing team has a good eye for fine thoroughbreds, and their must trusted trainer is Bill Mott (he also trained Royal Delta).
This filly has faced much better fields. In fact, she was the favorite a couple of races ago against Utilization Rate. I think she wasn’t at her best for her last race, she didn’t perform as expected. Maybe because of the cut back in distance and the faster pace, but we shouldn’t take that race into account. This isn’t an easy challenge for her, especially with JL. Ortiz riding Etheric. However, her workouts suggest she is ready for a big performance. She hasn’t met the expectations, but she will surprise everyone with a successful performance very soon.
3)Etheric
I am a guy who trusts in the jockeys’ decisions. If Jose Ortiz decided to ride aboard this filly instead of mounting Mott’s presented (Doral), this filly must have a real chance here. Etheric has always been inside the money, and she is always there at the wire coming from off the pace. I believe the pace doesn’t favor her, but she has a powerful late kick and surely Jose will position her much closer to the frontrunners.
Picks: 2-1-3
Race 3: Alw 180K, 6 ½ – furlongs (turf)
I like this field a lot. Despite being at the end of their racing careers, these horses have proven to be top turf sprinters. The Kentucky Downs racetrack is a natural track with a different shape than normal oval racetracks in the country. The starting pole for the 6 ½ - furlongs is located over a turn and the slope forces the horses to run uphill for several yards. So, this affects the pace, and they will not develop full speed during a long section of the race. Because of this, horses coming from post positions close to the rail are strongly affected, and closers are benefited.
2)Arrest Me Red
Even when he is the logical horse for the race considering his past performances, and the fact that he has competed against top-class racehorses like Caravel or Casa Creed, I think he has a very difficult challenge ahead of him. He has just been gelded, and he is coming out from post number two which isn’t a good one according to the racetrack characteristics. Also, he doesn’t have early speed, yes, he is a sprinter, but that doesn’t mean he has an early running style. He is always positioned behind the pace setters and gets involved in the race coming out from the far turn. So, things will get complicated for him coming out from post number two. I consider him to be the best horse of the field, but I am concerned about his current shape and the huge challenges he must overcome to beat this field.
5)Heaven Street
Now, this is a horse with tactical speed. By having an early running style, he should be able to get to the lead coming out from gate. He will have some company right from the start, but in my opinion, he is the best horse among the frontrunners in this field. I don’t think he will set a suicidal pace; I believe this race will be run at a normal pace for the distance. If he manages to get some separation coming out from the far turn, he will be very hard to catch.
6)Bakers Bay
I think this is the most dangerous horse coming from off the pace. As I said, this racetrack benefits closers. In fact, Bakes Bay has competed twice at Kentucky Downs, and, in both presentations, he has been deciding the race. He won a couple of years ago, and last year he finished in second place because he found some traffic and that costed him the victory. He has been training nicely at Churchill Downs, and with Talamo aboard, he will be the fastest horse at the latter section of the race. Bakers Bay loves this track.
Picks: 6-5-2
Race 4: OC 62.5K, 6 ½ – furlongs (turf), purse 170K
I don’t like this field. In my opinion, this is a poor field competing for a big purse. There is nothing extraordinary about these fillies. Remember, optional claiming races are won 71.2% of the time by a horse which is not for sale.
3)Free and Humble
I am not sure about her cutting back in distance. Even when she has won a sprint race, according to the final times and the speed figures, her best performances have been running over a mile. I believe that’s probably because she is a slow starter, and because the post positions have always forced her to have complicated trips. However, she is probably the best filly of the field. She was shipped from the west coast, so it is difficult to compare her quality with the rest of the fillies in this group. Running over a demanding racetrack like this one, she needs to have a perfect trip to have a successful performance, and that’s quite difficult considering she is coming out from post number three. However, Johnny V. is an expert helping horses to break well and have good trips. So, this is the filly to beat.
6) Current Climate
I don’t think she is the best filly here considering she has always been competing at lower-category racetracks and on the dirt. Also, I don’t like the fact that she is for sale (that’s always a fact to take into account because it reduces her winning probabilities). However, the fractional and final times of her last presentation are too good for me to overlook her. She was switching surfaces and amazingly, she was better than ever. If she is involved in the race since the start, which I believe it’s going to happen, she will be a hard nut to crack.
10)Accomplished Girl
This is a very good filly. After facing Love Reigns in the Limestone back in April, she needed some resting time to recover from that huge effort. She fought for the lead right from the beginning and the pace was very fast. Yes, she faded close to the wire, but that was a very good performance for a young filly who had just broken her maiden. She came back to the tracks at Gulfstream Park in July and won wire-to-wire. I must say she had a perfect trip, but the final time was fast, and her performance was good. She is also benefiting from a nice post position, coming out from post ten, it will be easier for her to get to the lead and avoid trouble.
Picks: 3-10-6
Race 5: Mdn 150K, 7 – furlongs (turf)
In my opinion, this is the most difficult race of the day for handicappers. There is not much information about these colts, no important pedigree, and no bullet time workouts. Which of these two-year-old colts is the best?
1)Thunder Ball
This is a 7 – furlongs race and last time Thunder Ball showed an interesting late kick over 5 ½ - furlongs. I think he will perform much better over a longer distance. However, he will have to overcome coming out from post number one and not having tactical speed. That’s a bad combination for a sprint race, especially at Kentucky Downs.
2)Twirling Point
This horse has a nice pedigree, probably one of the best of the field. His only half-brother to have competed (Kitten Mischief), won two races out of eight and ended up inside the money five times in his short racing career. I believe this colt is extremely green. In my opinion, he has too few workouts to be ready for having a successful performance. However, there is not much potential among these colts, at least none that meets the eye, so despite his status, I must say he can win.
4)Edgartown
What about this good-looking colt by Quality Road? He was purchased at the Fasig-Tipton October Keeneland Sale by Jacob West for 250K, a guy who knows a lot about racehorses (Sales consignor at Highgate). Also, check this out, he was bred by SF Bloodstock and W.S Farish. SF Bloodstock is a company financed by George Soros which goes hand in hand with the SF Racing Stable. SF Bloodstock takes care of the breeding operation while SF Racing is a racing team.
Horses in the SF stable are each owned in individual multiple partnerships with some of the sport’s biggest operations, including Coolmore, China Horse Club, WinStar Farm, Stonestreet Stable and Starlight Racing among many others.
More info: https://www.equibase.com/content/bc/owners/SFRacing.pdf
These are top connections. I believe Edgartown is an interesting colt, he has been training nicely and seems to have racing potential. Trained by Joe Sharp and mounted by Tyler Gaffalione, this is a horse to consider.
10) Do Your Job
According to his past performances, this horse should be considered as the race’s favorite. He has the advantage of having competed in two races already. Experience is very important for colts at this early stage of their racing career. David Cohen is back aboard, and that’s also a good sign. I believe he will be involved in the race since the beginning, and considering the absence of horses with tactical speed, he will be able to set a comfortable pace. If the AE horses are finally scratched, this is the colt to beat.
Picks: 4-2-1-10
Race 6: Alw 160K, 7 – furlongs (turf)
This is a bad race to place bets. These horses are not to be trusted. Be careful because this is a tricky one. I am going to give you my selections, but let me tell you, anyone can win this race.
4)Just Say When
I am aware that he is coming back to the racetracks after nine months. However, this colt has been across the board five times out of seven presentations. In fact, he already won at this racetrack a year ago. He started having some physical issues after he was moved to Michael Maker’s barn. Just Say When had an impressive performance in Kentucky just after he arrived at Michael’s stable. But soon after, he started having some problems and clearly didn’t perform well in his next two races. Those were the only two races where this horse ended up outside the money. I don’t know how he will handle this tough comeback race, but Just Say When has been training nicely and that is a good sign of him being ready to return.
7) Mr. Peeks
This field is so bad, that even when this horse is switching surfaces for the first time and this is probably the worst racetrack for a dirt horse, I am going to select him among my picks. Why? Let me explain my point.
Mr. Peeks has been competing against much better fields. When C2 Racing Stable moved him to Saffies’ barn, they thought they had a colt with the potential to be competing in black type races, which didn’t happen. In fact, he was pointed to the Florida Derby against Forte and Mage, where I believe he was used as a rabbit to help his stablemate Nautical Star have a successful performance.
After that, he had a very convincing performance winning by six lengths. Finally, he competed against two difficult fields (one was a black type race), and he couldn’t deliver. So, he has the tactical speed needed for this race, he has faced better fields, and he will be mounted by Edgard Zayas, who is the most trusted rider by Saffie. The problem is the surface, let’s see what happens.
11)Dunedin
He is dropping in class for this race. Dunedin has faced much better horses like Nagirroc, Turf King, and Gigante. The only race he has won was carried out at this racetrack. I believe because he is a horse who likes to come from off the pace, and this track tends to benefit his running style, he might be benefited by a fast pace. If he manages to have a good trip, he will be deciding the race.
Picks: 11-4-7
Race 7: Mdn 150K, 6 ½ – furlongs (turf)
I am going to use a single for this race. He is a horse I have been following despite not being in my Noteworthy Runners stable.
3)Beer Run
I have been selecting this horse for quite some time. Before his last race these were my comments (you will find out that I have been talking about him for a long time):
In my opinion, his last performance proved he is the best horse of the field currently. I selected him among my picks for that race, my picks were Beer Run, Mischievous Angel, and Inspector Poirot. I didn’t consider Flat Top Box at the time. Now, according to the morning line, Abreu’s trainee is Beer Run’s toughest rival. If that is the case, I believe Beer Run should be considered as a single for this race. These were my comments before his last race:
Another expensive colt, he was purchased by Peter Leidel at the Keeneland September Sale for 460K. This son of City of Light has just been shipped from Kentucky and this will be his first race here at New York. I like that he has tactical speed, and the final time of his debut race is good enough to beat this field, he was too fast for these colts. Also, John Velazquez is back aboard which is a good sign. He should improve a lot in this race. Wesley Ward has some big numbers when pointing his trainees to this type of race. In my opinion, this is the horse to beat.
He is facing an easier field, so he should have a successful performance. If he breaks well, the race is over.
I think he just didn’t show up for that race, he wasn’t able to take the lead and had a compromised trip close to the rail. I don’t think we should take that race into account. I love to see Johnny V. back aboard and that’s what made me decide to use him as a single.
Picks: 3
Race 8: Gun Runner Stakes, 1 – Mile (turf), purse 1,000K
This is a very difficult race to predict. In my opinion, to do a proper forecast of this race, it’s important to look at two races which could give us a clear vision of the current shape of these horses. The first one is the KY Downs Preview Dueling Grounds Derby, which as its name suggest, is a prep-race for the Gun Runner. On the other hand, the Manila Stakes G3 is an interesting race where some of the favorites faced each other prior to this contest.
2)Highway Robber
He was involved in such a close finish against Wadsworth that even the announcer wasn’t sure of the result. Furthermore, fortunately for Godolphin’s colt, Highway Robber found some traffic at the latter section of race and wasted some valuable seconds that allowed Wadsworth to come out on top. Here is the replay of the KY Downs Preview Dueling Derby:
In any case, both contenders were benefited by an extremely fast pace, and I don’t believe that is going to be the case in this race, it will be fast because there are some horses with tactical speed, but probably not suicidal. With the race carried out at a regular fast pace and over a shorter distance, Wadsworth has a little advantage over Highway Robber. However, this horse is a real menace coming from off the pace.
6)Talk of the Nation
This horse had a fantastic performance in the Manila Stakes. He fought against Nagirroc during the entire race, and he managed to defeat the favorite by a neck. However, their fight for the lead forced a suicidal pace and More Than Looks was able to catch them right in the money. That replay is very enlightening because it also shows the current shape of Major Dude, unfortunately, that horse is not the same top-class colt from six months ago. Here is the replay of the Manila Stakes for you to draw your own conclusions:
I believe Talk of the Nation has the advantage of having early speed. He will probably be challenged by Major Dude, Gaslight Dancer, and Escape artist. But considering the frontrunners, he is the horse to bet on.
9)Wadsworth
Well, this horse will probably be the race’s favorite. I think racing at a faster pace is a positive thing for him. He is a tactical horse that can be positioned closer to the leaders than Highway Robber, logically will see a lot of people betting on him. However, this is a much tougher field than those he has faced in the past. He is not running at Ellis Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis, or Turfway Park, he will be running at Kentucky Downs for a huge price of 1,000K, against some of the best turf horses in the country.
Picks: 6-2-9
Race 9: Big Ass Fans Music City Stakes G3, 6 ½ – furlongs, purse 1,000K
This is a very good race. These fillies are worthy of such a big prize. I believe these are some of the best turf sprinters in the country at the moment.
1)Danse Macabre
When I saw this filly winning the Herecomesthebride Stakes G3, against top fillies like Cairo Consort and just after being stretched out for the first time, I thought “this filly is the real deal”. I must say she was benefited by a soft pace; she got involved in the race since the start and because of the slow pace, the favorites weren’t able to catch her. It was a fine performance.
After that race, she was much the best in the Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill Downs. American Apple had a powerful late kick, but it was too late for her to catch Danse Macabre. Here is the replay of the Mamzelle:
She can make her move early and use her tactical speed to take the lead coming out from the starting gate. There is no real early speed in this field except for Queen Picasso. So, she can set the pace and try to win it wire-to-wire. However, she will have to contain some important late kicks by some top turf fillies.
3) Queen Picasso
She is a beaten favorite here. Even when she is cutting back in distance, she has showed tactical speed in her past performances. The final time of her presentations, before being shipped to Woodbine (debut and the Soaring Softly Stakes), were extremely good. She just ran out of gas in her last performance. I believe she needed that race to get back to 100% after spending almost two months off the tracks and have traveled to Canada. The Kentucky Downs track is different to those where these fillies are used to running; that could be an important fact to take into account. However, she has a top-class pedigree for the surface. The only thing she must do is avoid forcing a fast pace, but there is a high probability of that happening. She is included in my Noteworthy Runners stable, so don’t leave her out.
5)Mammas Girl
I don’t know how good she can perform since she was just being shipped from England. It was a long trip a week ago and that could affect her performance. However, this racetrack is much alike to the European tracks, and she is very adapted to natural racecourses. Mammas Girl has competed against the best turf fillies in the world. She was never an important contender in those G1-Stakes, but she was there. Considering the success of European horses on the grass, she must be included in your picks.
9)Accede
When you have a racehorse owned by Juddmonte, trained by Brown, and mounted by John Velazquez running on the grass, that’s a horse you must include in your tickets. Even when you don’t see how he could win. Well, that’s why I am including her. Accede is switching surfaces against a very tough field, and she is coming out from a very bad performance. However, she is training extremely will, with bullet time breezes.
12) Mohawk Trail
This filly will be highly benefited by the Kentucky Downs racetrack. She is coming out from post twelve, and she is a horse who likes to come from off the pace. She has a powerful closing kick, and she will probably be favored by a fast pace. She is getting better with each race, so I believe she will be there at the wire. Here is the replay of the Ontario Colleen Stakes:
Picks: 5-12-1-3-9
Race 10: Mint Millions Stakes G3, 1 – Mile (turf), purse 1,000K
Finally, the race we all came to see. I believe it will be a very fun race to watch. I envision a race with Churchtown setting the pace, Annapolis close by, Smokin’ T also involved in the race since the start, and Ancient Rome hunting for the race at the back of the pack.
5)Smokin’ T
This horse is currently in perfect shape, he has been training nicely. He is a tactical horse who could adapt to any kind of pace. Smokin’ T can be involved in the race since the beginning and still end up having a powerful closing kick. In a race like this one, where the pace will probably be a moderate one, he can get close to the leaders and make his move around the far turn. I don’t think anyone coming from off the pace will get to him if the pace is soft and Johnny makes his move first. Last time, at Saratoga, the turf track wasn’t in good shape (yielding), and that’s why the final time of that race wasn’t as good as it should be. However, that was a fantastic performance by this colt. I don’t think he is a better racehorse than Annapolis, but given his current shape, Smokin’ T can win this race.
6)Ancient Rome
This is a horse perfectly adapted to running over natural tracks like this one. He has competed at the highest level of turf races in Europe like the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club G1. He will be a real menace coming from off the pace. Even though he is considered as a miler, this race might be a little short for him to have a successful performance. However, if the race is carried out at a fast pace, he will be there at the wire. By no means should you leave this horse out of your tickets.
10) Annapolis
I believe he runs better when he is positioned at the middle of the pack without challenging the frontrunners. When he was beaten by Casa Creed the first time, I thought he had a wonderful performance, even when he was bottled up and Irad had to make his move later than expected. For me he was the best horse that day and had bad luck. In fact, these were my comments before the Fourstardave:
He lost an impossible race against Casa Creed who was much better positioned in the Kelso, and Luis Saez took advantage of it. Annapolis was bottled up almost the entire trip, and then was forced to take a wide turn. Luis Saez won by making his move sooner, compromising Annapolis trip. I believe Irad is here for the revenge, and I agree with his decision to ride aboard this great miler. In my opinion, Annapolis is currently a better horse than Casa Creed, however, he will have to prove it on the tracks. Here is the replay of the Kelso Stakes, check it out:
However, in the Fourstardave it was all the way around, he was involved in the race since the beginning and got flattened at the end. So, Casa Creed was much the best at the latter section of the race. I understand he will be the favorite for this race, but this is a dangerous track.
Picks: 5-6-8
Race 11: Mdn 150K, 6 ½ – furlongs (turf)
I am going to close the day with a single. This filly seems to be not just one, but several steps above the rest.
9)Cowichan
I think she just had bad luck in her last couple of races. This filly owned by Stonestreet Stable was a big favorite last time, but she was beaten by Secret Money who is currently competing in the Music City Stakes in the upper card for a huge prize of one million dollars. In fact, she defeated one of the favorites for the Music City like L J’s Emma in that race. With John Velazquez back aboard, she seems to be out of this league.
Picks: 9
Overview:
1) 8-2-11
2) 2-1-3
3) 6-5-2
4) 3-10-6
5) 4-2-1-10
6) 11-4-7
7) 3
8) 6-2-9
9) 5-12-1-3-9
10) 5-6-8
11) 9
Remember to check out the late scratches and changes because there are some AE horses with a lot of chances. Good luck to y’all!