Analysis of Kentucky Downs’ card, September 9th, 2023
Hello, my dear friends, and welcome to another exciting weekend of horse racing!
It has been a very nice week for my selections, probably all the bettors that follow Horse Jabber and Homestretch PPA made some money this week. Especially, thanks to Rodolphe Brisset’s presented Santorini, who paid out $48.18 on Thursday. That’s a record payout for my first picks. I was impressed by the high amount because Santorini faced some top turf horses like Webslinger and Dude N Colorado in the Colonel Liam Stakes, and when he broke his maiden, he defeated a nice field (Scramble who finished third at the time, won in his next presentation). So, I didn’t think of him as a long shot. Both races took place when Santorini was still trained by Todd Pletcher. In any case, it was an amazing ride by Alex Achard and a perfect day for my selections.
Remember that you can find all my selections from Wednesday to Sunday in our new website: www.horsejabber.com
Just go to the Top Daily Bets in the Gambling Tools section and look for the selections of the day you’re interested in.
This weekend there are some Win and You’re In races to be carried out at Kentucky Downs. Those stakes provide the winner with a starting spot at the 2023 Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Santa Anita. On Saturday you will witness two Win and You’re In races: the Ainsworth Turf Sprint, and the Fanduel Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes.
So, as the spectacle begins and with no further delay, I am pleased to present to you the best winning formula for horse racing bettors in the U.S. I wish y’all the best of luck and a great Saturday afternoon at the Dueling Grounds. I hope you spend a wonderful day with your loved ones sharing the passion for horse racing.
Welcome to Kentucky Downs!
Race 1: Mdn 150K, 6 – furlongs (turf)
This is a good race to start the day with. There are some fillies in this field with the potential to become group one racehorses. Since many of them are debutants, remember to check for top pedigree, trainers, and jockeys. There are some with excellent pedigree and top connections. However, because these are two-year-old fillies debuting at Kentucky Downs, I strongly recommend not to place high bets.
2)Lite It Up Louie
She has an interesting pedigree. Not only is she an inbred 4x5 to Seattle Slew, and 5x5 to Mr. Prospector, but also Lite It Up Louie’s only sibling (I Don’t Get It) broke his maiden at Santa Anita against a nice field back in March. Her dam, Flat Out Gittin It, won three races out of eleven presentations. So, she belongs to a winner’s family (9-c). In addition, she has been training nicely. Considering the low price offered according to the morning line (6/1), and the fact that she will be mounted by the top jockey at this racetrack (Tyler Gaffalione), I believe she will be deciding the race.
5)Permed
She already competed three times and that experience could give her an edge over those who haven’t raced yet. Permed also has a very nice pedigree, she is an inbred 4x4x5 to Mr. Prospector, and 5x5 to Deputy Minister. Eclipse Thoroughbreds is a top owner with a nice breeding operation. Because of the broodmare potential this filly has, they decided to keep her. If she doesn’t starts winning, I don’t think we will see this filly in the tracks much longer. She is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be mounted by Irad Ortiz. If we are looking for top connections, this filly has all.
8) Noto
I like the way this filly has been training. She has enough breezes in order to be ready to compete, and some of those workouts are bullet time ones. Noto also has a top-class pedigree, she belongs to family 8f, a very interesting bloodline that has produced top racehorses like Nijinsky, War of Will, and Birdstone. In addition, she is an inbred 3x4 to Mr. Prospector. Furthermore, Madaket Stables are always involved with talented thoroughbreds, the have a good eye for horses with racing potential. So, the workouts are good, the connections are great, and her pedigree is fantastic. She should be a filly to consider.
Picks: 8-5-2
Race 2: Mdn 150K, 1 – Mile (turf)
Last week we were talking about Demarchelier’s potential as a stallion. Well, the horse I like the most for this race is another colt from his first crop. Let’s see if he delivers.
9)Vivaldi
Chad Brown’s statistics for this type of race are very good. Also, having Irad Ortiz aboard is a good sign. As I said, riders’ agents are well informed about the horses their clients should ride. There is also a matter of commitment, but they would never select a horse without real winning chance. This colt is Calumet’s homebred, which is a good sign considering their racing team’s remarkable accomplishments and their fine breeding operation. So, we have a top team’s homebred, who is training nicely, trained by Chad Brown (a turf specialist), and mounted by Irad. Vivaldi is definitely a colt to consider. The morning line suggests the same (9/2).
10) Melee
This colt has an interesting pedigree, he is an inbred 4x4 to Northern Dancer which is unusual at this point. We are talking about another homebred. He is Claiborne’s colt, and they also have high expectations with Melee. This young horse has been training since May, so he must be ready to compete for the first time. According to my research, debutants races are won 81% of the time by a colt with ten or more breezes before debuting, and this guy has twelve. In the absence of Junior Alvarado, Joel Rosario will be his rider. Even when Melee is 12/1 in the morning line, he is a horse to consider.
12)Double Your Money
Considering the post position, the surface, and the fact that he already competed, this is the horse I like the most for this race. Last week I talked about Demarchelier and his stallion potential. Let me remind you:
In an article by Eric Mitchell for BloodHorse, where he relates De Sica’s victory, he quoted Peter’s comment about this new sire:
"He could get a great grass horse certainly, but he also has the influences of great American sires such as Seeking the Gold and Mr. Prospector that could result in some great dirt horses," he said.
Full article:
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/271105/demarchelier-sires-first-winner-in-france
The final time of his debut race was fast, but according to Double Your Money’s pedigree he should perform even better over a longer distance, so I like Lynch’s decision to stretching him out. This colt also showed some tactical speed, and that’s very good considering the Kentucky Downs racetrack poor conditions (because of the weather, the turf is good). This surface is currently favoring the frontrunners over the closers. Double Your Money should be involved in the race since the beginning, but Keith Asmussen must avoid a fast pace.
Picks: 12-10-9
Race 3: Alw 180K, 6 ½ – furlongs (turf)
I like this field a lot. These ladies are very talented. I know them all, and at some point, they have all ended up being my first pick in the past. Because of that I am going to use a single for this race, it is a risky move because they are all very good, but I believe she is ready for this challenge.
3)Transient
She has had several matches against Personal Best over these marathon distances. In fact, Personal Best has beaten her both times in 2023. However, in both races Transient was forced to run against her style. She is not a frontrunner, she doesn’t have tactical speed, she performs much better when coming from off the pace. Back in those races, there was no early speed, and it were small fields. Because of that, she had to get involved in the races since the start, and that costed her at least one victory.
There is early speed in this field, the presence of Vergara and Sinfiltre suggest there will be some pace in this race. I believe those fillies will be involved in the race since the beginning. I don’t see this contest being held at a suicidal pace, but the fractional times will be faster than those in Transient’s past races. If Transient is positioned off the pace, probably next to her nemesis Personal Best, she will have a powerful closing kick and could beat them right in the money.
Transient should have a nice trip because this is a six horses’ field. Being one of the mature mares, she will be very tough to beat. She is currently in great shape as she proved to be back in July when she won obtaining some high-speed figures. Additionally, Saffie Joseph Jr. and Tyler Gaffalione have been extremely good at this meet. They are both competing for the leading positions by the number of victories at Kentucky Downs. Tyler is the jockey to have won more races at this track historically.
Picks: 3
Race 4: Alw 160K, 1 – Mile (turf)
This is a very difficult race for bettors. Many of these fillies have proved to be good racehorses. I am going to select four of them, as I believe they are the most talented ones.
4)Holy Foley
Check out the names of the fillies Holy Foley has faced: Love Appeals, Get Your Kicks, Freydis the Red, Best Performer, etc. All those ladies would have been odds-on favorites if they entered this race, but they are currently focused on competing at G-Stakes level. Last time she didn’t have the best trip, but she had something left in the tank close to the wire. If the race is held at a fast pace, she has a real chance here.
6) Lilac Girl
This is a good filly. She had a very nice performance against For the Flag back in April, after having a huge move up in class. To put you up to speed, For the Flag competed a couple of days ago in the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Kentucky Downs for a big purse of 500K. She performed nicely finishing in second place after having a tough battle with the winner Sister Lou Ann. Considering the big field and the conditions of the track, Lilac Girl must break well and get involved in the race much sooner than she is used to. She always has a powerful late kick, so she should be deciding the race.
7)Pawky
She was very good last couple of times, especially when she competed against Soviet Excess who in my opinion is a much better racehorse. In fact, she hasn’t been outside the money in 2023. I am a little concerned about the pace, I think she has significant early speed to get to the lead since the start, but she will be challenged and that could force a suicidal pace. I need to use a frontrunner because the poor track conditions give them an important advantage, and she is the best among them. However, a fast pace at this racetrack is a killer. Pawky is training nicely, and Saffie has been fantastic during this meet.
11) Frontal Attack
She is the logical selection for this race. Frontal attack is dropping in class after competing in a G3-Stakes. The final time of her last race is extremely good, she was involved in the race since the start and held on until the final furlong where she got flattened. Being the daughter of War Front, she has a top pedigree, and she is built for speed. I believe Irad just has to relax her at the mid-section of the race, so she can have a strong late kick. Probably he will be positioned next to the leaders since the beginning, and he has the post position advantage. Owned by Peter Brant and trained by Chad Brown, this is a powerful turf filly.
Picks: 11-4-6-7
Race 5: Mdn 150K, 1 – Mile (turf)
I believe there are three colts several steps above the rest. However, this is Kentucky Downs, and we are used to big upsets. Torigo will likely be an odds-on favorite, but the post number doesn’t favor him, and he needs to watch out because there are other two contenders very well prepared for this challenge.
2)Torigo
His connections must have high expectations with this horse. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have pointed him to a G2-Stakes just after debuting. Clearly, it wasn’t the right race for him, and he got injured. After that race, he had to stay off the tracks for nine months. Unfortunately for him, he came back to competing in a race where he didn’t have a chance, he was facing one of the most talented turf colts currently like Northern Invader. Torigo wasn’t bad considering he was coming back after a long period of time, and he needed that race to get back in full shape. He ended up in second place eight lengths behind Northern Invader. Now, better prepared and against an accessible field, he is the colt to beat. He will be ridden by Irad Ortiz, which is also a sign that he is ready to have a successful performance.
6)Shockwave
This horse has showed significant improvement since he resumed training back in July. No one is paying attention to him because he is coming back to the tracks, and all the eyes are locked on Torigo. However, this is a dangerous horse, he has come on quickly in the last month. Don’t leave him out.
9) Auden
You know, I always pay special attention to Juddmonte’s homebred horses because of their successful breeding operation. This colt is an inbred 4x4 to Caro (Irish horse to have produced some top-class horses like Cozzene, Siberian Express, and Winning Colors), and 5x5 to Mr. Prospector. Let me get deep into this guy’s pedigree. His dam Filimbi (bred by Juddmonte) won some G-Stakes races in France and the U.S. She ended up producing 670K in earning and got across the board sixteen times out of eighteen races, winning seven of them. Also, her paternal grandsire is Cozzene by Caro. By crossing her with Arrogate they created an inbred to Caro (Auden) which gives the colt the potential to become a successful racehorse, and an important sire to continue with Caro’s bloodline.
Races are not won by pedigree, but Auden has a nice probability to become a fine thoroughbred. He’s training nicely, and some say he might have his sire’s quality.
Picks: 9-2-6
Race 6: OC 62.5K, 1 5/16 – Mile (turf), purse 170K
I don’t know about this race; the prime time of these horses is long gone. I believe this race will be decided by the horses who are currently in best shape and not according to their PP’s.
6)Stolen Base
I am intrigued by Irad’s decision to ride a 15/1 horse in this race. I think Stolen Base is a nice horse who has recently showed a powerful closing kick, but I am not sure about his chances against this field. However, he is in nice shape currently and with Irad aboard he should be considered. There is not much pace here, so probably he will be able to get a little closer to the leaders than usual. If that’s the case, he might show that strong late kick and have a successful performance.
9) Sharar
This colt is the young face here. What about having good riders aboard the long shots. This 15/1 horse will be ridden by John Velazquez and is trained by Pletcher. You don’t see that every day.
After he arrived from Dubai, this Gun Runner’s colt had a nice performance against a top field. He has faced some nice turf horses like Webslinger, Anglophile, Wadsworth, etc. Even when he got tired at the end of his last race, the pace was fast, and the final time was very good. I believe Sharar does have a chance in this race because he will be able to run a little more comfortable. In addition, he will run with Lasix medication for the first time and that might be a game changer for him.
11)Corelli
He is the logical horse for this race. He is well adapted to these marathon races, and he is always the fastest horse at the latter section of this kind of contest. In my opinion, the longer the distance the better for him. What I don’t like about him is that he is for sale, and according to my data, these optional claiming races are won 71.2% of the time by a horse which isn’t. Kentucky Downs is a difficult course, coming out from post number eleven will help him a lot.
Picks: 6-11-9
Race 7: Mdn 150K, 1 – Mile (turf)
I am aware that we have some nice fillies in this field like Le Beau or Hola Gata. However, I believe there is one filly here who should be considered as a single for this race.
7)King’s Secret
This filly has the potential to become a top turf racehorse. She is a daughter of Kingman, and she belongs to the family 11-d. The same family that produced some magnificent horses like Lope De Vega, so according to her pedigree we know she should be a fast horse. Furthermore, she has been competing against top fillies at Gulfstream Park and Saratoga.
Back in the Diana Stakes Day, she competed against a tougher field, and she had an awful trip. King’s Secret was boxed close to the rail. Then, at the latter section of the race, she was blocked and Gaffalione had stopped her momentum to look for room to the outside. When she finally found a hole, she almost won and was involved in a photo finish. I believe this is the right race for her. Coming out from post number seven, she will have a better trip, and probably will end up deciding the race. This is a nice filly to place bets on.
Picks: 7
Race 8: Franklin-Simpson Stakes G2, 6 ½ – furlongs (turf), purse 1,000K
We are talking about a very even field. All these colts have proved to be good enough to enter this race. I am going to select four horses which I believe have the highest winning probabilities.
2)Private Creed
I understand why he is considered as the horse to beat. However, he always struggled coming out from the gate because he is not the best starter. That fact always affects his trips. The problem is that at Kentucky Downs and coming out from post number two, if he has a bad break, I believe he will be practically eliminated. Private Creed must get involved in the race since the beginning. Check out what happened in his last race, and how the trip affected his performance. Here is the replay of the Mahony Stakes 2023:
8)Mo Stash
I believe this colt is dangerous. Yes, he is cutting back in distance, which is an important fact to consider, but he has been competing at the highest level since the beginning of his racing career. Come on! This horse defeated Nagirroc and Webslinger back in April and had a very nice performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf back in 2022. I am aware that he didn’t have his best presentation in the Secretariat Stakes G2. However, this is a shorter race against an accessible field. Probably, Mo Stash will have some trouble following the hot pace, but he might have the stamina to keep going when the others can’t.
11)Closethegame Sugar
As you saw on the replay of the Mahony Stakes, this horse is feisty, he just never gives up. Coming out from post number eleven he will avoid getting in trouble. His workouts are still as good as always, and he is in great shape. If the pace is fast, he is tactical enough to get behind the pace setters and make his move exactly when needed. Lezcano is one of the most trusted riders by the Rice’s family, it doesn’t matter if he is riding for Linda or for her nephew Adam, he always gives his best. Lezcano has some big numbers riding for this guy. Be careful with this horse.
12)Behind Enemy Lines
I like everything about this horse. He has the pedigree, he is used to this type of track, he is coming out from a favorable post, and he has been competing against the best turf horses of his generation (Carl Spackler, Major Dude, Far Bridge, Webslinger, Anglophile, etc.). The only thorny issue Behind Enemy Lines needs to overcome is the shorter distance. If he manages to follow the faster pace, he will be the fastest horse at the homestretch. He is another top ride for Tyler Gaffalione, one that could help him win the best jockey by number of wins.
Picks: 12-2-8-11
Race 9: Ladies Turf Stakes G3, 1 – Mile (turf), purse 1,000K
I am going to use a single for this race. She is part of my Noteworthy Runners stable, and I believe she is a winner at the gate.
3)White Frost
Candy Ride – Miss Frost by Curlin. Family 1-k. Inbred 5x4 to Mr. Prospector. This mare is getting better and better. She competed in the Honey Fox G3, the Jenny Wiley Stakes G1, the Old Forester Mint Julep Stakes G3, and some black type races in the current year. Every single time she has ended up inside the money (2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd).
Considering the field White Frost is facing in the Ladies Turf Stakes, she should be considered as the top favorite. However, she needs to stay off the pace, her best performances have been coming from off the pace. I think she has tried to run against her running style in the last two or three races because she wasn’t going to catch powerful fillies like Technical Analysis if she was relegated to the back of the field. Furthermore, I think Bill Mott knows this. In Alvarado’s absence, Joel Rosario will be her jockey. That’s a good thing, not only Rosario is a top rider but also, because of his limitless patience, he is one of the best jockeys for closers.
The Kentucky Downs track is favorable for horses coming from off the pace. I don’t love her post position, it is not good to be close to the inner post at this racetrack, but I consider she is the best mare here. I believe that she is a very hot horse who should become a winner in no time. She also has been training very nicely coming into this race.
After that race, she was much the best in the Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill Downs. American Apple had a powerful late kick, but it was too late for her to catch Danse Macabre. Here is the replay of the Mamzelle:
Picks: 3
Race 10: Ainsworth Turf Sprint Stakes G2, 6 – furlongs (turf), purse 1,000K
This is always a fun race to watch. I don’t love this year’s field, but I believe it is an even race. I am going to use three horses for this race. Let’s see who gets his ticket for the Breeders’ Cup.
5)Anaconda
Joe Sharp has been getting this horse ready for this race. Anaconda had a very nice performance against Emmanuel in the Poker Stakes G3 back at Belmont Park despite having a bad break, and then Gaffalione made some bad decisions in the Kelso, even when this horse didn’t have a chance against Casa Creed or Annapolis. Here is the replay of the Poker Stakes G3:
I think this horse has a real chance against this field. He can be involved in the race since the beginning, and he is tough running over sprints. In fact, a year ago he won at Kentucky Downs competing over seven furlongs. Don’t worry about the fast pace, this guy can follow it and destroy the field right in the money.
7)Cogburn
After his last race, this is one of the top candidates for the Ainsworth. In the Troy Stakes Caravel finally lost to these guys, and Nobals who was the second favorite couldn’t contain Cogburn’s attack. He was a fair winner in the Troy:
I believe he will be benefited by a suicidal pace, Rivelli’s horses have tons of early speed, and they need to be involved in the race since the beginning to have a chance. Especially One Timer, who is coming out from post number one. Noble Reflection will be there as well, so expect a fast pace. Cogburn can be positioned just behind them in a comfortable spot to make his move at the head of the homestretch. Don’t leave him out.
12) Dr. Zempf
In my opinion, this is the horse to beat. Coming out from a comfortable post to the outside and with Irad aboard, he has an edge over the others. This horse trained by Chad Brown is training exquisitely. He is in very good shape, and he is a top-class sprinter. Check the names this horse has competed against: Order of Australia, Modern Games, Kinross, Pogo, Chez Pierre, Casa Creed, etc.
I don’t know why he is 6/1 in the morning line. I would have considered a much lower price. However, with those connections, he will probably offer a lower amount. This horse is ready for a big performance.
Picks: 12-7-5
Race 11: Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes G2, 6 ½ – furlongs (turf), purse 1,000K
In my opinion this is an even better race than Ainsworth. I believe these fillies and mares have even more talent than the boys. In any case, it will be a delightful show for the fans. It is an even race, full of top-class sprinters. Not an easy race for bettors, but I am sure the winner will payout a profitable price.
3)Wakanaka
She was considered as one of the best turf mares in the country back in 2022. In fact, she even competed against the boys in Woodbine, where Modern Games started his amazing career in the continent. However, she hasn’t been the same racehorse in 2023, perhaps because she has gone through some physical problems, and because she was displaced by some extraordinary thoroughbreds like In Italian. Now, Bill Mott has decided to give her a try as a sprinter, and considering her racing ability, this might be the right call. She already competed in a sprint race when she was pointed to the Caress Stakes. Wakanaka wasn’t bad, but she had some trouble with the pace.
This will be her second presentation over a short distance. She has been training for this challenge, and she has the class to overcome the adversity. The post position is not good at all, so it will be a difficult race for her. However, the latter section of this racetrack (uphill) will help her catch the leaders. She is a dangerous contender.
5)Tony Ann
I was impressed by her comeback performance. The fractional times were extremely fast, she was facing a very tough field, and despite having spent seven months off the tracks, she lost right in the money. I believe she was shipped from California because her connections know she can win this race. I think she will be involved in the race since the start, positioned side by side with the favorite Bay Storm.
6)Bay Storm
This is clearly the horse to beat. After her amazing performance against Caravel in the Unbridled Sidney Stakes, she proved to be a very powerful turf sprinter. However, I am a little concerned because she has never won a G-Stakes. This competition is the toughest challenge of her career so far. She will have a lot of company in the front, and still will have to contain the closers, there are some talented closers here. Even when she is the horse to beat, I am not so sure about betting on her being the right decision.
9)Gal in a Rush
I have been selecting her as my first pick for quite some time now. She lost some impossible races due to bad trips, bad decisions, and bad luck. She is a much better filly than what her PP’s show. In my opinion, Irad made the right decision getting aboard her. The Kentucky Downs homestretch is very long, and you must go uphill at the latter section of it. That will be a huge challenge for the frontrunners considering the pace will be fast. She is a filly with a closing running style, her late kick is very powerful. By coming out from post number nine, she will avoid all the trouble and could catch them before the wire. This is one of my favorite turf sprinters currently.
Picks: 9-5-6-3
Race 12: Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes G2, 1 ½ – Mile (turf), purse 1,700K
I like this field. Some of these horses have given me big satisfactions as a handicapper. In my opinion, all those horses who lost to the old guy Channel Maker have much to improve if they want to come out on top in the Kentucky Turf Cup. I don’t like any of those horses. Perhaps I am wrong, but that was one of the poorest editions of the Bowling Green Stakes G2.
2)Red Knight
I am not making the mistake of leaving him out of my picks. Every single time handicappers told me he was done; he won the race and proved them wrong. I love this old guy; he has miles and miles of heart. Despite his age, he is one of the most powerful contenders for this race. Don’t lose your tickets to this guy. This type of track benefits those horses coming from of the pace unless the surface is good or yielding. It is perfect for Red Knight to win a spot in the Breeders’ Cup and have a last dance. If that happens, I will be very happy for his connections, he is a wonderful horse.
4)Santin
What about this Godolphin’s homebred? I don’t understand what he was doing competing on the dirt, he is a turf horse. And then, he was pointed for a G1-Stakes? Nothing makes sense to me. I know this horse from long ago, and I know he has the skills to win this race. He will perform even better over the 1 ½ - mile distance. I am sure that he is a better racehorse than many of the contenders in this field.
6)Me and Mr. C
In 2023 this horse has been fantastic. He has performed as a much better racehorse than he did in the past years. He is currently in a winning streak; this could be his fourth victory in a row. The age and current shape of some of the top racehorses in this field, opens the door for him to have a successful performance. He has been training nicely, and the final time of his last race is fantastic.
11) Therapist
I didn’t trust him in his last race at Monmouth and he proved me wrong. That happened on Haskell Day, and I was very mad at myself. Since Therapist was moved to Michael Maker’s barn, he started performing as a totally different horse. In fact, he moved up several classes. I know he is going through a sweet moment, so I think it is right to consider him among the favorites. Last time, the pace was faster than usual and that allowed him to easily overcome the rivals. Probably the pace will be much softer this time, but still, he should be there at the wire.
Picks: 11-2-6-4
Overview:
1) 8-5-2
2) 12-10-9
3) 3
4) 11-4-6-7
5) 9-2-6
6) 6-11-9
7) 7
8) 12-2-8-11
9) 3
10) 12-7-5
11) 9-5-6-3
12) 11-2-6-4
Remember to check out the late scratches and changes because there are some AE horses with a lot of chances. Good luck to y’all!